🧵: Let's dive into China's bogus "proof of life" propaganda around #PengShuai.

First, an email to @WTA's Steve Simon on the 17th.

Question 1: how would CGTN acquire a private email correspondence? Then why would it be reformatted into the perfect Twitter graphic format?
And then you can see the cursor on the tweeted graphic.

Then there's the WeChat photos of Peng Shuai allegedly from the 18th. They don't stand up to much scrutiny as we'll see...

First, none of them have any identifying information like photos you take on your phone, which means they've been stripped of it to ensure you can't see how took it or when.
(Little bonus, one of the background photos she poses with is her with Winnie the Pooh - an image banned in China because of unflattering references to Xi Jinping. That would not be lost on someone like Peng Shuai who is quite media savvy.)
The last photo is the "friend" who allegedly sent the photos from Peng's WeChat moments (an Instagram stories equivalent)- which is an anonymous account simply called "Peng Shuai 2". Strange person to be friends with the real Peng Shuai...🤔
Two days later, @huxijin_GT, the CCP's chief external propagandist releases a video of Peng Shuai and her coach in a restaurant using ridiculously forced language like:

Coach: "Tomorrow's date is November 20."
Peng: "No, tomorrow's date is November 21."

His second hostage video is even worse:

First, they place a "today's date" sign on the outside of the restaurant, which shows the month (November) but then they decided to blur out the specific date.

And for some reason all audio is muted from the clip.

If Peng Shuai were actually free, she would be allowed to speak for herself, using her own social media handles, not intermediaries.

She could also travel abroad and speak at press conferences. When she does, I look forward to hearing what's been happening the last two weeks.

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More from @GLNoronha

18 Nov
(1/4): I will post this video every November 18th to remind the world of the Iranian regime's crimes.

Two years ago today, a large group of Iranian protesters fled from the regime's roaming death squads and hid in this marsh on the outskirts of Mahshahr. The regime found them.
(2/4) According to witnesses and video such as this, we know what happened next:

The IRGC surrounded them with machine guns mounted on trucks and from a helicopter above and fired bullets at them for over 10 minutes. Then, they set the reeds on fire to displace any survivors.
(3/4) The regime killed dozens in that marsh, and according to leaked documents, at least 148 in the city of Mahshahr alone.

Morgues then forced victims' families to pay a tax for each bullet that pierced their loved ones' bodies, as high as $2,600, a fortune to poor families.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
New: Biden's policies have increased Iran's accessible exchange reserves by $27B (over a 750% increase) in under a year!

How? 1⃣By refusing to enforce U.S. law and put sanctions on Iran's oil exports. 2⃣By voting for the IMF's $5B reserve bailout to the regime.

Details in🧵 Image
2. Sourcing: Before the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran's reserves ($122B) were all available to the regime. New U.S. sanctions locked up a bit more than $90B of those.

In Dec. 2019, we declassified that Iran only had access to $10B reserves. cfr.org/event/conversa…
3. In April 2021, the IMF disclosed that Iran was down to $4B accessible reserves at the end of 2020. That matched our assessment. Now they estimate Iran will be up to $31.4B in accessible reserves by the end of 2021.

(Note: They also revised their 2020 projection. I disagree.)
Read 8 tweets
7 Jul
Yesterday, the E3 (France, Germany, UK) upgraded their concern level over Iran's nuclear program from "deeply concerned" to "grave concern". Forgive my yawn.

The E3 has played into Iran's nuclear extortion scheme for the past two years and lost all credibility w/ Iran. Thread🧵:
2. The first of nearly a dozen statements started in May 2019 when Iran first breached its JCPOA nuclear commitments. The first chiding statement clocked in at "great concern".

But in the same breath, the E3 promised to keep pursuing trade with Iran.

new-york-un.diplo.de/un-en/news-cor…
3. This immediately undermined any effect of their light chiding. The E3 told Iran there would be no economic consequence for breaking the JCPOA's conditions, and in fact they would redouble their efforts to bolster their economy.

"Concern" was supposed to serve as a deterrent.
Read 17 tweets
2 Jun
(1) Most things associated with Iranian military have a history in hostage-taking. So does the recently-sunk Kharg warship.

The vessel was originally ordered from the UK by Reza Shah's government in 1974 for the current-day equivalent of $550 million.
(2) The vessel was finished as the Islamic Revolution was taking place, delaying the transfer.

In 1980, 52 American diplomats were being held hostage by the regime. But the Iranians also took British businessman Andrew Pyke hostage on accusations of spying.
(3) The Iranians kept Pyke in Karaj Prison for 517 days. The UK refused to transfer the vessel until Pyke was released in 1982. In 1984, the UK transferred the Kharg, but without its standard armaments.

In Iran's arsenal, the Kharg has helped Iran take even more hostages.
Read 7 tweets
31 Mar
The @StateDept deleted this whole section from last year's human rights report on Iran. When asked by @HibaNasr why the report doesn't include the statistic that 1,500 Iranians were killed, State Department officials wouldn't answer. That's deeply troubling - here's why:
The @StateDept continues to cite the @AmnestyIran figure of 304 killed. To be clear, Amnesty's reporting is excellent. But as they admit themselves it was initial & incomplete. But the Iranian regime knows how many they killed, because they kept meticulous track in morgues and...
Iranian officials even made families retrieving bodies of their loved ones pay a tax for each bullet that pierced their bodies. Three Iranian officials who know the real number told @ReutersIran that figure was about 1,500. Read their reporting yourself👇
reuters.com/article/us-ira…
Read 6 tweets
14 Mar
Hold on tight! I've uncovered more in the bungled case of Iranian influence operations:

1. According to Afrasiabi, he was arrested at gunpoint the dawn of Jan. 18 by two FBI dozen agents who repeatedly shouted "foreign agent" as they stormed his house in Watertown, MA. [Thread]
2. Not being the brightest of Iranian agents, he immediately waived his 5th amendment rights and started defending himself to the FBI agents questioning him. He admitted he knew about FARA laws, but claimed they didn't apply to him. He has argued to the courts that ...
since the government hadn't arrested him in the 14 years he's received payments from Iran, it must have been fine.

(Side note: It is troubling that it took the FBI so many years to go after him, since they tell Afrasiabi they've been tracking Iran's payments to him for years).
Read 15 tweets

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