The more I digest the inflation data, the more convinced I become it is peaking and will be decidedly lower by this time next year. Gas and most goods prices will fall by then, and the normalization of prices for services will be over. 
The histrionics over inflation rest on a wage-price spiral. But wage growth is up only for low wage workers, who will return to work as the pandemic recedes and they spend their excess savings. Stronger productivity will also help.
Higher inflation expectations is also necessary for a spiral. But they are currently precisely where the Fed wants them. Look at 5-year, 5-year forwards, 10-year TIPS inflation break-evens, and my favorite, the Phila Fed survey of economists.
If I’m wrong, it’s likely because the pandemic has struck again, hitting supply chains and scrambling job markets. I’m counting on the pandemic steadily fading away – each future wave is less disruptive than the previous one. Fingers crossed.
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