This definitely matters (though I don’t know how much) and is usually missed by most models which – usual mistake – consider the population homogeneous.
If you asked if it matters, I’d say yes. I’d guess it explains a high percentage of wave behavior.
But if you asked me to list all causes, assign a percentage to each, and then normalize so that the total is 100%, I don’t think it’d be a very high %.
I hear that some think that an heterogeneous population has a lower herd immunity threshold, because the few superconnectors get infected first and stop connecting the groups.
But the superconnectors aren’t the only link between groups!
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An office full of introverted colleagues, for example, is a reservoir prone to explode during a third wave, for example
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And probably reality is worse due to not having reach the top yet (probably)
For completeness: OTOH, the 75% vaccinated means that vaccinated cases contribute less to spread; OTOH, the asymptomatic vaccinated is also less likely to test, so in the numbers above I imagine that the two effects above cancel each other.
Take Italy: first wave was concentrated in Bergamo (North), if you lived in Southern Italy the chances that you knew someone that could infect you were very low.
But then cases diffused, and the chances you know someone you can take it from increase.
Apparently, there are COVID-parties in Austria, Germany, and NE Italy, where young people get together with infected thinking that “getting the virus is better than the vaccine.”
Terrible: not only it’s false, but they also create problems for everyone around them.
One thing is saying “I’m afraid of vaccine side effects so I use masks and other precautions to avoid getting sick” (legitimate)
Another things is saying “I proactively expose myself to the infected” (dumb)
Yes but proactively exposing yourself to a danger to (perhaps) avoid consequences from future exposures to the same danger is idiotic
(with a possible exception for controlled microdoses, but that’s not what’s going on here)
A VACCINATED ELDER IN GERMANY TODAY IS ONLY 46% LESS LIKELY OF DYING OF COVID COMPARED TO ONE YEAR AGO
thread with data and explanations
TL;DR: the vaccine reduced risk of dying conditional of catching the virus, but the virus spread and this year you're more likely to catch it
Another data point: the average unvaccinated adult German (18-59yo) is THREE TIMES more likely of dying of COVID today than one year ago. Even though the 2/3 of the population that's vaccinated should protect them.
Because there are more cases → higher risk of catching it
Herd immunity works in the measure the herd isn't infected.
If the vaccine meant that the vaccinated cannot get sick or transmit the virus, and if the virus hadn't spread wildly, then herd immunity would protect the community.