Thread by @TaylorOgan

Every day, more & more Tesla fans realize what I’ve been saying for years: Teslas lack the hardware to be robotaxis. There’s a reason no one in the (actual) autonomous driving industry thought TSLA would pull off what was promised at Autonomy Day. Here’s why we need more of this

https://twitter.com/matchasmmatt/status/1463159418011496453

2/ There seems to be a misconception among the most extreme $TSLA bulls that those of us who are critical of aspects of Tesla are unable to see everything Tesla has accomplished and how disruptive Tesla will be. And I actually understand why. Let me explain.

3/ I’ve followed Tesla closer and longer than probably anyone reading this. Back in Tesla’s early days, we fans would meet at L2 EV chargers (only a few Superchargers per state) and nerd out about EVs, Tesla, Elon, compare Wh/mi, exchange 3D printed accessories for our cars, etc.

4/ We would talk about how nearly everything Tesla/Elon touches is going to happen. The most exciting part about it was that pretty much everyone else was saying Tesla wouldn’t be able to pull any of it off. That fires you up and makes you want them to pull it off even more.

5/ I get it. It’s fun proving the haters wrong and seeing these products actually exist. There were some things I started seeing that were overly ambitious and anyone who actually knew the tech knew wasn’t going to happen, like the battery swap event.

6/ We knew the hardware didn’t exist on our cars, but joyful exuberance swept through the veins of everyone else who didn’t really know the tech. Tesla (mainly Elon) really started taking advantage of the gullible “tech” enthusiasts.

7/ This definitely drove some of Tesla’s best employees to leave, as they weren’t comfortable with the growing list of empty promises that weren’t being taken seriously. Most stayed and were complicit because of all the other incredible things Tesla was doing.

8/ Similarly to the latter, I still own the stock because of all the core things of Tesla: it makes phenomenal electric cars, single handily glamorized the EV, and makes A LOT of them.

9/ And I want to be clear here; there’s a difference between accepting imperfections in the name of a better, cleaner future, and flat-out lying to people about glaringly obvious things and convincing them they are true.

10/ For example, any honest Tesla owner knows Tesla’s build quality is quite terrible. But most of us accept it because it’s a growing company that is disrupting the hell out of fossil fuel assholes and at the end of the day, it’s still a phenomenal car.

11/ But to knowingly deny the truth for fear it may hurt the brand or share price is wrong.

12/ Now beyond what’s core to Tesla, there are lots of other reasons to love the company/stock. Autopilot on the highway & in traffic is fantastic and hands down the best feature. The fact that I can get into my car and it has received software OTA that makes it dance is awesome.

13/ But now other EVs have those features, and that makes many in the Tesla community insecure, defensive, and naively ignorant to the other awesome innovations other companies are creating. Fine, whatever.

14/ The danger of such ignorance, though, is playing out. This is especially true of Tesla’s robotaxi pipe dream. More on that later.

15/ You wonder why TSLAQ exists and not AAPLQ. Steve Jobs was an asshole & troll similarly as Musk, but Jobs/Apple didn’t make all these promises; he/Apple only unveiled things they were already producing and they would go on sale no more than a few months later.

16/ TSLAQ exists because of the battery swap event, the solar roof event, the Cybertruck event, Autonomy Day, Battery Day, the Semi unveiling, Musk’s tweets of the cross-country autonomous drive, making a capsule to rescue stranded children from a cave, etc.

17/ In other words, all the things the fanboys love are the same things that fuel TSLAQ. But TSLAQ gets it wrong over and over. TSLAQ doesn’t understand that while all these missed timelines, empty promises, constant backpedaling, etc. do exist, Tesla is more than that.

18/ TSLAQ doesn’t understand why people would spend their Sunday hanging around a charging station, or why we sleep in our cars waiting for a software update, etc. Most TSLAQs haven’t driven an electric car beyond a 10-minute test drive.

19/ That’s why I float somewhere in the middle, and I’m not dumb enough to miss out on owning the stock. It’s my highest-returning stock of my life.

20/ I still want Tesla to push the envelope and pull off the seemingly impossible, but some things are, like, REALLY impossible and we need to be more realistic on that front. That’s my intent here.

21/ It’s frustrating when Cathie models out 20 million robotaxis each generating some ridiculous profit per vehicle beginning next year, but it’s utterly harmful to the value when those who know that’s not going to happen spread it.

22/ Most Tesla shareholders need to better understand what other companies are doing.

I don’t speak out about how terrible Tesla’s FSD is or why Tesla making a 4680 battery with a dry electrode for $50/kWh that is safe enough to be on the road ain’t happening next year…

23/ And here’s why I’m concerned about Tesla robotaxis and 4680: beyond the core EV business, I think the current valuation has those two parts way too baked in, and most in the Tesla community are giving way too much credence to Tesla delivering on those two fronts.

24/ Just look at the stock six months after Autonomy/Battery Day. There are way too many anonymous rocket ship emoji Twitter accounts talking about FSD/robotaxis/4680 like Tesla has already accomplished them. I study the companies actually achieving those things for a living.

25/ TL;DR Tesla is nowhere close to achieving two catalysts that sent the stock soaring, & too many are ignorant to hurdles ahead.

Tesla (core) fundamentals are still strong.

If you don’t believe me, fine. But why would I, of all people, be so concerned?

Not investment advice.