TESLA MARKET SHARE THREAD

EVs are representing increasingly more of passenger vehicle sales in the 3 largest auto markets: China, US, and Europe. China & Europe EV markets are growing much faster than in the US.

NEV market share growth in 2021:
China: 62%
Europe: 31%
US: 18%
2/ Focusing on those leading markets, how is Tesla's market share fairing? Well, since $TSLA opened its factory in Shanghai, it has overall been losing market share in the growing Chinese NEV market.
3/ Now, many would be quick to point out that may be caused by Tesla exporting vehicles from China to Europe this year. However, Tesla isn't gaining market share in that market, either. It's fair to say Tesla is maintaining ~5% share in the European NEV market.
4/ To smooth things out, when you look at Tesla's share in the European & Chinese NEV markets on a quarterly basis, Tesla is losing market share in both.
5/ Some may argue that a dominant player in a rapidly growing market would maintain or lose market share as competitors flood the space. The thing is, the largest NEV maker in China is GAINING market share. $BYDDF $BYDDY
6/ How? In 2021 alone, BYD has unveiled 10 new EVs and deliveries of 6 have already started. This isn't to say BYD has superior tech and stronger brand recognition in China, but it does offer a full lineup of EVs, whereas Tesla is only in the 235k-380k RMB market.
7/ As @Real_Jack_Shea said earlier this year, Tesla needs more models in its lineup, especially as the Chinese and European markets are becoming increasingly saturated with multiple new models from EV startups and legacy automakers.

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More from @TaylorOgan

16 Apr
BYD's Q1 2021 Anti-Corruption Bulletin is out. For those unfamiliar, BYD releases all internal cases of corruption every quarter.

I know I say this a lot, but I've never seen this much transparency from a company.

There were seven cases this quarter.
Translated:

$BYDDF $BYDDY Image
1. Mr. Liao, a senior mechanical engineer of the Second Division, received non-monetary kickbacks from a supplier.

2. Duan, a production foreman of the Nineteenth Division, played Mahjong with suppliers and exchanged money from the game. Image
3. Process Engineer Zheng of the Nineteenth Division, Production Foreman Yu, Production Team Leader Hu, and Painter Zhang played Mahjong with suppliers.
Read 9 tweets
15 Apr
@garyblack00 @ScorpionFund 1/ Yes. A highly technical short report, and the points were well made. First of all, solid-state batteries (SSB) are the holy grail of the future of batteries. $QS investors have known this was a long term play right out of the gate.
@garyblack00 @ScorpionFund 2/I’m not surprised they went public. In their defense, they made it clear that their technology wouldn’t bear fruit until 2024 (pre-pilot line 2023), at the earliest. I’m also surprised a short report came out this early. It was inevitable, though. Not just for $QS, but for SSB.
@garyblack00 @ScorpionFund 3/ $QS had to raise that capital that early on to be taken seriously in the battery space. It was simple: IPO and be crowned winner of SSB in the early stages of the race.
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
Questions/comments for @wintonARK and team re: Tesla 2025 valuation model. First of all, I appreciate the time it took to put this research together, and for responding to questions on Twitter.

@CathieDWood @ARKInvest @TashaARK @skorusARK
2/ In your bear case, you have 17,640 human-driven ride-hail Teslas coming onto a non-existent Tesla ride-hail network THIS YEAR, contributing $529M in rev. Again, this is your BEAR case. How? The network hasn't even been announced.
3/ Also, is there a reason you assume 50% EBITDA margin on Tesla's non-existent human-driven ride-hail network right off the bat (beginning this year), when Uber & Lyft haven't even been profitable?
Read 13 tweets
16 Mar
YouTuber AI Addict posted a video yesterday of a drive through Oakland on the latest version of Tesla FSD Beta 8.2 “City Streets”.

Regardless of what you think of a product Tesla calls “Full Self-Driving”, do yourself a favor and watch these clips.

Part 2: These are clips from a 28-minute drive.

There’s a difference between, “The software will get better when the NN has way more data,” vs. hardware ceiled Level 2 ADAS, as even Tesla now admits.

Tesla robotaxi dreamers will have to wait for cars with the proper HW.
Their videos seem very honest. I imagine they won't have the Beta much longer.

A commenter thanked them for providing us with, "...a balanced view of what is ahead. Others try to show it is near perfect."

Check out this video, also on latest version.
Read 4 tweets
9 Mar
Tesla FSD Thread:

Let's dissect Tesla's Full Self-Driving, because I haven't seen anyone really get to the meat of it.

There has been a lot of confusion re: FSD/robotaxis, especially recently with the emails between Tesla and @CA_DMV that were obtained through a FOIA request.
2/ This may surprise you, but from the very beginning (2016), Tesla defined of what exactly it intended FSD to one-day be capable:

This is from Tesla's website in 2016, when it began offering Full Self-Driving Capability.
3/ Five years later, the features have been officially named, but the functions of "Full Self-Driving" have never changed. This is what Tesla's website says today.
Read 25 tweets
11 Jan
Quick thread on #NIODay from this weekend, the effect it is having on $TSLA, $BYDDF, $QS, $LAZR, $NVDA, CATL, and what is to come.

The NIO ET7 boasts 621mi range (150kWh battery) for $70k-$80k & Level 3 autonomy. This prices right in-between Model 3 SR+ & base Model S.
2/ $TSLA is down -6% today, largely on this news. Not surprising, but TSLA bulls aren't flinching from this. NIO ET7 isn't really expected to hit the roads until late next year–enough time for Tesla to refresh S/X & boost pack size, TSLA bulls think.

$NIO is up 8.5% today.
3/ BYD (1211 HK) was up 6.7% in China on Monday partially on the news of its surprise unveiling this morning of 3 new "super hybrid" models (PHEV): Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, & Tang DM-i.

$BYDDF is up 3.5% today
Read 13 tweets

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