Don’t have any problem with Biden trying to find a potential off ramp with Putin. Trust he is not doing it to protect his own interests. not sure there was an equivalent for Trump with the anti Iran crowd. Think they were terrified if he ever got to table with Iran.
& did whatever they could to make sure it did not happen.
on the strategic catastrophe of Trump quitting the Iran deal, see most of the Israeli national security establishment has now gone on the record that it was a catastrophe, as was obvious then to most. a few of them say was bad he quit it with no plan for getting anything better.
think Trump would have been willing to make a deal with Iran, but he hired people who made sure that would not happen. and then he became convinced pleasing the anti Iran folks was something he could use for reelection, then do whatever he wanted.
adding to sense of the dynamics, I understand, when Trump attended the G7 in France in 2019, & Zarif came, Netanyahu was desperately trying to get Trump on the phone, (presumably to prevent him meeting Zarif), & jared told netanyahu that trump was too busy to take the call
got sense, the last few years, there were strong constraints from the Iran side too on potential openings for Zarif to meet Trump. including the attacks on saudi oil facility just before UNGA in Sept. 2019

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More from @lrozen

22 Nov
🧵Re: US declarations of “ironclad” support for Ukraine territorial integrity, “Such statements are eerily reminiscent of political support signaled to Georgia in the run-up to the Russia-Georgia war in 2008. Not only is Russia unlikely to be deterred by diplomatic terms of art
“that lack credibility, it will try to injure the US’ reputation when Washington appears so overextended. The US must act, but it should take care not to mislead Ukrainian leadership into expecting support that will not materialize…
“If the White House does not see a military role for itself in Ukraine, as was the case in 2014, it should tell this privately and candidly to Kyiv so that Ukraine’s leaders can operate with a full awareness of the geopolitical reality.” foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
Sudan FM Miriam al-Mahdi, on Atlantic Council zoom event, says the ministers were surprised by announcement yesterday on Hamdok allegedly being restored to PM, saw it on TV, see it the move as potentially supportive of the coup.
guess ex foreign minister, because she says several ministers submitted their resignations yesterday.
She praises the Biden admin/Feltman for swift condemnation of the coup, says US response helped shape international reaction. AU suspended Sudan in 24 hours after coup. Says even countries that wanted to support the coup, like Egypt, they couldn't do it. stayed silent.
Read 4 tweets
19 Nov
officials in Lake County, Ohio and Mesa, colorado seemingly let lindell’s guy tap into their systems and looks like there is mucho evidence. “State & county officials…determined that a private laptop was plugged into the county network in Lake County comm. John Hamercheck’s
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19 Nov
sobering & insightful @CFTNI event on Russia/Ukraine. hope someone gets WH a transcript. George Beebee and Dmitry Suslov remarks in particular since bit at odds with a lot of commentary in dc on how to try to deter escalation. M. Kofman: what happens when US & Russia can’t agree
all the speakers agree Russia is not bluffing. Kofman: only so many times can threaten to invade ukraine
future conflict on much larger scale…what ldrship signalling, conflict that involves a substantial part of UKR, encircle UKR mil & force new political agreement, trash Minsk
Dmitry Suslov (not verbatim/check trnscrpt): Russia does not perceive Ukraine as part of Russia sphere of influence...Ukraine w/its current borders, pop'n, will not accept becoming part of sphere of influence in Russia. Russia would prefer Ukraine neutral. Not anti Russia. ...
Read 20 tweets
18 Nov
Fascinating , somewhat ominous CFR event with Fiona Hill and Andrea Kendall-Taylor. Both think Putin's multiple vectors of pressure --on Ukraine, energy, shutting down Normandy talks--may be aimed at getting to the table with US for some sort of more comprehensive settlement
Hill also said more reasons to think Putin will probably act on Ukraine than not, narrow window of opportunity to try to deter
Hill, noting Russia invasion of Georgia in summer of 2008 was when China was last hosting the Olympics, wonders if we can prevail on the Chinese to possibly suggest to Russia not to do offensive on Ukraine when China hosting Olympics this February.
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18 Nov
🧵Political directors of UK, France, Germany, US Iran envoy Rob Malley, GCC, Jordan, Egypt met in Riyadh today on regional security situation, inc. Iran actions, per press statement. E3/US “welcomed our regional partners‘ efforts to deescalate tensions & promote dialogue in reg’n
“They discussed Iranian destabilizing activities in the region, including the use and transfer of ballistic missiles and UAVs that have led to attacks against regional partners...” 2/
“They underlined that enhanced regional dialogue & a return to mutual compliance with the JCPoA would benefit the entire Middle East, allow for more regional partnerships & economic exchange, with long-lasting implications for growth and the well-being of all people..inc.in Iran.
Read 4 tweets

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