To take three examples: international investment, skills and planning reform.
Many national & local leaders seem to think we can just bumble along, not offend any voting group & hey presto, post Brexit economic health follows. Sadly I don't think this will cut it
2/
On international investment, we need to get $$$$ to counterbalance lost EU investment.
At present no strong approach to winning int investment. Currently a patchwork of local investment advisors, but most have public sector background + lack of physical sites to sell
3/
In our large geographic region there are currently ZERO large scale strategic sites to land big deals.
Our local authorities havent provided these sites for decades & have no appetite or incentive to bring forward. You can't be global Britain with nowhere to put them.
4/
Contrast the UK with our competition in Eastern Europe & elsewhere - Hungry is building mega giga factories at a scale the UK system doesn't countenance.
& Large sites that do exist are being taken by logistics. But you can't build comparative advantage on internet shopping
5/
On skills - our post 16 skills system is failing, esp those deprived households who fail to get good academic results.
At present, the no of deprived groups getting apprenticeships (& also total number of apprenticeships) has been declining since 2016, just when needs to rise
6/
Whilst our schools system is deeply unequal - but as benefits upper & middle classes appetite for reform limited, leaving large part of our people under utilised.
On neither post 16 or schools is current level of political ambition sufficient to scale or external challenge?
7/
Whilst on planning reform- accross the UK we are currently building on employment sites to avoid offending powerful local anti development interests (often retired & well off).
This squeezes biz competitiveness & hurts jobs and kills many biz growth plans.
8/
Time & again I see local authorities under allocating employment land - even in previous pro growth areas like Swindon (recently rejected application for a new science park whilst old Honda plant going to logistics).
Yet national planning reform barely mentions employment..
9/
& new gov targets pushes bulk of new housing growth onto city centre employment land..!
To be blunt: our planning system seems designed to help the economically inactive suffocate the needs of the economically active. Post Brexit this is surely unsustainable.
10/
This is reinforced by, uniquely for OECD high income countries, a non existent regional planning system, with weak incentives for councils to co-operate accross wider geographies.
Just when we should be thinking big, our planning system encourages thinking small
11/
This is before we get to tax burden & biz environ or wider industrial strategy..
First 5 years of Brexit was gov getting to grips with formal UK:EU relationship & trade framework. Next ten years must surely be on implications for our domestic economy & policy support.
12/
Even ardent Brexiteers I know have failed to grasp the above. Too many believe UK can just doodle along, whilst everyone stays in comfy bubble & hoping something turns up.
But Brexit means change: too few grasped that, both left / right & leave / remain
END
So in light of the good news on Honda site's sale, a niche thread:
On employment land, the eternal balance between manufacturing vs shopping and what it means for local UK economic strategy..
1/
First up - the good news.
Panattoni are a big global logistics firm and they secure the future of the site. Great news.
Reading through the releases, appears will either maintain or increase no of jobs on the site. V +ve for Swindon employment.
2/
Logistics is a massively booming industry at the moment, but many traditionalists will regret that the site isn't being used for advanced manufacturing of some sort.
Am just going through our most recent business survey, & clear is causing, not just widespread despair, but also lost business, fraying relationships with European customers & investment held or cancelled.
Some quotes below:
“Many European customers are saying they don’t want to buy British made goods. In situations where we are the only manufacturer, the clients have asked if we can consider to relocate production from UK to an EU country”
Chemicals Company
“I’m very worried about increased admin and feel there is no help available. We are a small team and don’t have the finance to employ someone to deal with [European] exports”
The news on Honda is devastating - a major employer and contributor to Swindon.
With any decision like this, multiple factors at play.
One of them is Brexit, as presentation slide Honda gave to MPs in 2017 shows. Honda been saying these messages to MPs & government for 2 years
Trump thrown additional level of uncertainty into Honda planning.
Honda Swindon exports approx 40% of its cars to the US. The threat of tariffs of between 10-25% on Civic would make it completely uncompetitive in US market.
Another big strategic headache for Honda Japan
The complete lack of clarity from UK government on future of EU Free Trade Agreements - vital if Honda could rebalance from US risk.
Honda given v little clarity on what happening - will they even exist for UK in April 2019? - and rules of origin tied to these.