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24 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1 of 4:

Metaphors drawn from the technology of the day has been a source for coming to grips with being human.

Take steam engine metaphors for example:

He or she is under pressure,
is overheating,
is about to burst,
needs to let off some steam or
needs to cool down!
2 of 4:

In the world of computers we are doing the same:

Society needs a reset.
Can you recall that memory?
He needs to recharge.

It is therefore not surprising that our response to the pandemic was influenced by our understanding of computers.

brownstone.org/articles/why-b…
3 of 4:

Humans are not computers. We act on faith and reason, not on instructions. There is a difference. If an instruction is not reasonable or the instructor not trusted, humans resist.

Moral reasoning involves being able to give reasons for our actions.
4 of 4:

Children become independent moral reasoners when they can switch from acting to please parents or peers to acting on the basis of some abstract concept of the good.

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More from @pieterstreicher

pieterstreicher Profile picture
24 Nov
1 of 4:

This is my current understanding of C-19 in SA:

Each new variant increased the herd immunity threshold (HIT) as R0 increased.

Affluent suburbs were able to slow the spread to some degree and had larger subsequent waves as a result of more transmissible variants. Image
2 of 4:

Sero levels remain below the theoretical SIR HIT level, but in townships the difference is very small now.

We can already see an attenuation in each epidemic wave in Khayelitsha which can only be ascribed to high community immunity levels.
3 of 4:

The pandemic might be almost over for the country, but not necessarily for all suburbs.

Those not yet infected will benefit the most from vaccines as they can now significantly reduce their risk of severe disease if infected.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
29 Oct
1 of 6:

Revisiting the original Imperial College 1st wave scenarios:

Firstly, 280 critical care beds/100k works out at 188k beds at the peak, which corresponds to 2.4m deaths, not 500k.

The 500k was later reduced to 350k, which would have given 39 critical care beds / 100k. ImageImage
2 of 6:

Secondly, notice the odd order of interventions and the curiously equal benefit of each. This is normally an indication of a thumb-suck exercise.

Surely, it would be sensible to start with the least disruptive measure first, for example, case isolation. Image
3 of 6:

And then add on more disruptive measures such as measures focussing specifically on the vulnerable.

Limiting high risk gatherings and warning the public about high risk locations such as crowded and noisy indoor venues could then be added. Image
Read 7 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
19 Oct
1 of 5:

While Thomas Kuhn suggested that we "follow the scientific community", Paul Feyerabend suggested we "follow scientific geniuses".

Galileo, Newton and Einstein embodied a rebel spirit that drove scientific innovation.

2 of 5:

Feyerabend saw science as a creative and artistic endeavour and believed that it should not limit itself to one method or constrain itself with dogmatic rules.

It is the people that put their careers and reputations on the line that transforms the history of science.
3 of 5:

If scientists act as self-righteous bullies, treating laymen as idiots, even if they are right, they should expect kick back from the community.

Instead, scientists should aim to broaden the understanding of their work and listen to the concerns of ordinary citizens.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
16 Sep
1 of 4:

A young and an old man see a lion in the veld. The young starts putting on his running shoes.

Surprised, the old man says "You can't outrun a lion!"

"I don't have to outrun the lion," said the young man, "I just have to outrun you."

@PanData19
2 of 4:

During this pandemic with multiple variants and multiple waves, 10-20% of the population might never be infected. Vaccines are not expected to increase this number by much.

Who ends up in this 10-20% matters.
3 of 4:

The mortality risk to the healthy young is 100,000x lower compared to the healthy old, and 500,000x lower compared to the old and sick.

By closing schools and hiding the young, are we not making it increasingly difficult for the old to remain in the 20% never infected?
Read 4 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
15 Sep
1 of 4:

If there is one unwarranted fear, it is the fear that vaccines introduce a significant mortality risk.

Sweden has 60% of its population vaccinated over the last 9 months with no excess deaths.
2 of 4:

The possibility of net harm from vaccines will most likely be limited to the young, the healthy and the recovered.

This BMJ articles looks at both sides of the argument ito vaccinating the recovered:

bmj.com/content/374/bm…
3 of 4:

This pre-print looks at the risk of cardiac adverse events for boys 12-17, post vaccination.

Further research into the severity and long-term sequelae of post-vaccination CAE is warranted.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 4 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
22 Aug
1 of 7:

This week I am going for my 2nd dose of the Pfizer vax.

The vaccines are completely safe as there is no evidence of long-term adverse effects regardless of how many doses are given. The absence of evidence is the evidence of absence, one of the key principles of EBM.
2 of 7:

Vaccines are thoroughly tested for safety over many years amongst all risk groups.

For example take this Moderna clinical trial amongst pregnant women which will be completed in 2024.

clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
3 of 7:

The public can rest assured that the emergency approval of C-19 vaccines will only be upgraded to full approval once all these trials have successfully been completed.
Read 7 tweets

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