Can Irans Fordow enrichment site be destroyed?

Is the reported 90m very-hard granite overburden➕backpacked steel-concrete liner sufficient to stop:

➡️ 🇺🇸 Massive ordnance penetrator?

➡️ 🇺🇸 Nuclear earth penetrator?

➡️ 🇺🇸 & 🇮🇱 Nuclear ballistic missile warheads?

A thread ⏬
What is Fordow capable of?

➡️ Hardrock type is known to be Granite of unknown strength (140-230 Mpa), with an reported overburden of 90m

➡️ Heavy backpacked concrete steel tunnel liner is used

Graphic below shows an attack by 250kt nuclear warhead delivered by Jericho/Trident
With known heavy Iranian liner types interpolated at 2,5 kbar:

➡️ Probability of damage is just 10% with an avarage value of granite compressive strenght

➡️ It is estimated to decrease to 2-5% with very hard granite, which is most likely and the reason for site selection Fordow
Appears that the design point of Fordow is also the most likely scenario of the 3:

➡️ Ballistic missile attack by non-MaRV'ed Jericho-2 (or Trident-II)

Against which it would most likely remain intact (vibration sensitive centrifuges excluded)

Multiple hits to some extend too

1: MOP is non-feasible in terms of penetration, except temporarily blocking entrances

2: Aircraft delivered nuclear earth penetrator would work, but given:

➡️ Depth of Fordow in 🇮🇷 heartland
➡️ Improvement of 🇮🇷 air-defense

Would require a long, total war campaign
This shows why Fordow is of such a key importance for Irans nuclear leverage and latent capability

➡️ It also shows why 🇮🇱 threats on a strike against 🇮🇷 uranium enrichment capability, even with its most potent weapon; nuclear Jericho-2 BMs is simply infeasible

➡️ JCPOA Psyops

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More from @Pataramesh

11 Jun 20
So how can we quantify Salman's performance?

In the retweeted tweet I did a tech. based estimate

However due to the graph from the launch we can work with hard numbers

Here a step by step recipe, with the result of 8% empty mass at low l/d ratio: An impressive performance

In my latest blogpost I show how the calculation for modelling a missile is done: Its no rocketscience...

- Model the Ghadr 1st stage via its officially published parameters

- Modify the model with a payload that would result in the 2800m/s delta v from the graph

- Create a estimation model of the Salman from its outside dimensions and a reasonable estimated Isp (270s-290s).
The rest of the calculated modified Ghadr payload is for the 3rd stage and sat

- Look at what structural ratio this Salman would need to have to create 2420m/s

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