Highest-ever number of cases in Europe. Highest-ever virus attack surface.

If you’re not vaccinated, know that the benefit-costs ratio increased since January.

And if you’re vaccinated, your absolute risk didn’t decrease as much as the nominal 80-90% vaccine protection.
Yes. Waves are partially due to seasonality, partially due to immunity fading / variants, and partially due to the virus filling a network fast📈, reaching herd immunity there📉, then finding access to another network📈
In the first tweet, by “the benefit/cost ratio increased”, I meant of vaccination. In other words, it’s more risky not to vaccinate now that it was a year ago, and it’s less risky to vaccinate now than it was in January.

(HT @maintcraft for pointing out the potential ambiguity)
If “we’re going to catch it anyway,” does the absolute risk of catching the virus this year matters?

Yes, it does. At a societal level, to help hospitals work as designed, to keep others safe, and to reduce the risk of variants.

And at a personal level for the reasons below.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

22 Nov
This definitely matters (though I don’t know how much) and is usually missed by most models which – usual mistake – consider the population homogeneous.
What do I mean, “how much”?

If you asked if it matters, I’d say yes. I’d guess it explains a high percentage of wave behavior.

But if you asked me to list all causes, assign a percentage to each, and then normalize so that the total is 100%, I don’t think it’d be a very high %.
I hear that some think that an heterogeneous population has a lower herd immunity threshold, because the few superconnectors get infected first and stop connecting the groups.

But the superconnectors aren’t the only link between groups!

(continues below)
Read 4 tweets
22 Nov
I don’t know who needs to hear that, but:

- daily cases in the Netherlands are 2x the max last year

→ the 25% unvaccinated in the Netherlands are ~double as likely to die as 1y ago; prob more due to Delta

→ the 75% vaccinated have < half the risk reduction ~expected 1y ago
And probably reality is worse due to not having reach the top yet (probably)
For completeness: OTOH, the 75% vaccinated means that vaccinated cases contribute less to spread; OTOH, the asymptomatic vaccinated is also less likely to test, so in the numbers above I imagine that the two effects above cancel each other.

More in general:
Read 5 tweets
22 Nov
A question vaccine mandates proponents often fail to address: how will it be enforced in practice?
Some historical precedents; does anyone know of a vaccine mandate *for adults* and *enforced to the unwilling*?
Some more context on how Austria plans to do it (though one wonders whether it is actually enforceable)
Read 4 tweets
21 Nov
Because cases diffuse.

Take Italy: first wave was concentrated in Bergamo (North), if you lived in Southern Italy the chances that you knew someone that could infect you were very low.

But then cases diffused, and the chances you know someone you can take it from increase.
In two words: the surface area of the virus increased
Also other reasons, of course: Delta, complacency, etc.

But IMHO the most underrated one is: the surface area of the virus increased.
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
Apparently, there are COVID-parties in Austria, Germany, and NE Italy, where young people get together with infected thinking that “getting the virus is better than the vaccine.”

Terrible: not only it’s false, but they also create problems for everyone around them.
One thing is saying “I’m afraid of vaccine side effects so I use masks and other precautions to avoid getting sick” (legitimate)

Another things is saying “I proactively expose myself to the infected” (dumb)
Yes but proactively exposing yourself to a danger to (perhaps) avoid consequences from future exposures to the same danger is idiotic

(with a possible exception for controlled microdoses, but that’s not what’s going on here)
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov

thread with data and explanations

TL;DR: the vaccine reduced risk of dying conditional of catching the virus, but the virus spread and this year you're more likely to catch it
Another data point: the average unvaccinated adult German (18-59yo) is THREE TIMES more likely of dying of COVID today than one year ago. Even though the 2/3 of the population that's vaccinated should protect them.

Because there are more cases → higher risk of catching it
Herd immunity works in the measure the herd isn't infected.

If the vaccine meant that the vaccinated cannot get sick or transmit the virus, and if the virus hadn't spread wildly, then herd immunity would protect the community.

But it's not what's happening.
Read 10 tweets

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