In Oregon, yesterday was day 140 of the Summer CoVid wave, the day before Thanksgiving...
That means it's time for a WaveyWednesday update, comparing this wave to all the others in Oregon.
So, happy holidays, more that 2,000 have died from CoVid in these 140 days, this "summer".
Until this week, we didn't actually know that. A month ago OHA announced that it had found more than 500 deaths which were not reported over the course of this summer, at that time there were about 1,000 deaths reported in this wave, horrific yes, but not 2,000...
Since that announcement, we have had another 500 pass away in this "summer" wave, in addition to the 1,000 we knew about, in addition to the 500 we didn't know about.
Thankfully, a large portion of the population is vaccinated, or it could have been so much worse.
This is all background for a few simple plots which show the daily case data for the Summer 2021 CoVid wave, which we are very much not out of, as we prepare to head inside for the holidays, the winter.
Firstly, just case count, counted from the previous trough/low of cases
During Summer Wave 21 (which we are still in), the wave peak was ~13x the previously, and we are still 4.6x that low, although that does mean we're down 64% from the peak.
Lining up the peaks of all the waves, instead of the troughs, shows how fast this wave rose, and how slowly it's going away, despite our high vaccination rate.
All because we cannot bear to wear masks and eat takeout.
Look at Spring of 21, it rose similarly fast but left rapidly
It is hard to grasp just how much trouble we are still in, we're all tired of the Summer 2021 CoVid wave, because it is most definitely NOT summer any more.
Every day another 10, 20 or 30 families lose someone to the SUMMER CoVid surge.
This weekend there is a high risk of "sneaker" waves on the coast, and when that risk is high enough the beaches will close.
Since the year 2000 17 people have tragically died from sneaker waves.
Beaches would close if 17 died every day from sneaker waves.
oregonlive.com/travel/2016/07…
Sorry for being a drag, not feeling very #Thankful today.
Every day is a tragedy, but this wave is no Sneaker. No, Summer 2021 CoVid wave was no surprise.

That's your WaveWednesday update...

Replies are off for this one. Please, be safe today.
(breaking the thread to correct a typo, should read 13x the previous low/trough)

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More from @OHAinContext

23 Nov
This is a truly incredible result for the following thing that might get lost on first glance -

The 90%+ efficacy is not compared to NO vaccine, it’s compared to a 2-dosed population.

The step UP in immunity is relatively as much as getting 2 doses when you had no immunity.
If getting two doses of Pfizer reduced your chance of death or sever disease by 20X (round number but largely accurate), this reduces that risk a FURTHER 20X.

Now, the immunity has waned a bit in the 6 months since your second shot, so maybe it’s only 4X or 5X, but add 20X!
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug
3,036 cumulative deaths, and OHA can't be bothered to close restaurants. "The economy!" the capital owning class cries!
I'll remind them that the 9/11 fund median payout was $1.7M per person for wrongful death
Do Oregon's businesses have $5B laying around for the next 3,000 dead?
At some point these deaths go from accidental, to negligent, to wrongful. Someday a judge will decide that but certainly lifting all restrictions as delta variant bears down is a marker that will be forever remembered in the losing battle against idiocy.
July 1st, negligence day.
Only about 20% of Oregonians have been infected with CoVid, and 3,000 are dead.
The plan from OHA is to let the remaining unvaccinated ~40% get CoVid, including your children under 12.
Certainly each of those lives lost will be a result of a decision made by someone in authority.
Read 5 tweets
22 Aug
“3 feet of physical distancing recommended by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which SPS is following “to the extent possible,” is an outdated standard based on less transmissible variants.”
“Infections will still be introduced into the school population through unvaccinated contacts of children, and breakthrough infections are on the rise given waning protection, a concern among school employees who were prioritized for vaccination earlier.”
Early data from other states where schools have started in-person indicate this is a mistake. In Scottsdale, there was more COVID transmission in the first seven days this year than the entire year. Outbreaks have already closed at least four districts in Texas.
Read 4 tweets
21 Aug
New OHA projection came out yesterday and it's a pretty dire prediction, as I'm sure you've seen. I think it's important to remember what went into this, and how it compares to other models that came out yesterday-ish from OHSU and IHME
First things first, a link to all the models I'm going to be talking about:

OHA 8/19:
oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Do…

OHSU 8/18:
ohsu.edu/sites/default/…

IHME 8/19:
healthdata.org/sites/default/…
Using WebPlotDigitizer to extract data from the OHA Re graphic shows a peak Re of 2.01 on 20 July, pretty close to my simple model result of 2.09 on July 25. I've talked at length about the differences in the methods, but close enough for my jazz. (pats self on back)
Read 17 tweets

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