Thread by @EnemyInAState

South Africa has now hit a true exponential in cases: a massive increase in just 3 weeks from less that 1% positivity to 30% as new variant with significant changes becomes dominant: the variant is thought to be more transmissible and may completely evade vaccine protection:

At an emergency press conference recently held leading South African scientists accounted that they have intensified a new variant of concern, amid a paid rise in cases: the variant has significant changes in spike:

This variant is thought to be more infectious as well as better at evading vaccines protection: the new variant has been named: B.1.1.529, and is soon to be named using the WHO Greek alphabet system:

There are 30 mutations in spike, these mutations are 'clearly very different from other circulating variants of concern' scientists in South Africa said.

There has been a massive increase in test positivity in the last few weeks in certain districts, but the virus is spreading extremely quickly:

The variant can be detected with particular PCR tests: labs have reported an increased in S gene dropout that can help to determine the variant (a bit like Alpha): variant is very quickly becoming dominant.

South African Gov has reported that they are preparing for a massive hospital surge as a result and will be reimplementing stricter measures to try and contain the outbreak.

Watch the Urgent briefing here: credit should be given to South Africa here for mobilising an extremely quick response (by out standards at least) and taking action to inform the public and the world.

The variant has also been detected in Hong Kong: over 7,000 miles away indicating that spread is already wide.

Apparently some sort of error has occurred Our World In Data and the chart which opens this thread is to be am mended: the information with in the thread remains accurate at the time of print:

The South African Minister of Health Dr Joe Phaahla today called the rise 'exponential', saying:

"Many members of the public have been noticing that the number of reports of positive Covid 19 infections have been rising over the last…seven to ten days, started...

...gradually and over the last few days over the last our to five days there has been more of an exponential rise starting about eight days ago where we had the total daily infections on the 16th of November just having a total of 273...

positive cases rising steadily the next day to almost double and then the region of 700 800 and as of yesterday we passed the two at the 1,000 mark at over 1,200 positive cases'

At today's urgent international press conference due to the new variant of concern that may evade vaccine and prior immunity due to significant changes in spike, covered earlier in the thread.

OK, this is super bad, how infectious is this motherfucker? someone got infected from staying at the quarantine hotel opposite the index case in HONG KONG!!!! Where they have some of the best infection control anywhere in the world, and they were vaxxed!

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1463998740340121601