Some excellent responses to this thread on how people manage risk. Let me outline my process. I will write it step by step, break it down and explain my logic. Not necessarily these are iron rules, feel free to understand and then add/modify what suits you.
So let's repeat the scenario again. You are with an overnight position, the market opens huge against you ( long or short does not matter). What do you do then?
Step 1 : start the relaxation technique as outlined in earlier thread.
Now these are your choices : 1. Double the position, averaging with hope that a slight favourable move will reduce your losses 2. Totally reverse the position, say from long to short 3. Cut the full position 4. Cut half ( "when in doubt, cut half position ") 5. Keep holding
Grab a cup of coffee and read on, I hope this will be a very interesting topic to discuss.
What do you do when you have a position over night and the market gaps significantly against you?
( you are looking at significant M2M loss)
I have faced this scenario quite a few times in my life, which is normal when you are in the markets for 20 years. 😃 When this happens, this is what I felt : 1. Heart starts racing ( your heart beat actually increases) 2. Body tenses up 3. You start breathing fast
There is a physiological explanation for this. Humans are genetically programmed to get into fight or flight mode when in danger.
More here : health.harvard.edu/staying-health…
Had a M2M loss of around 4.75 lacs( large positions in TaMo and ITC). As usual BNF came to the rescue and losses got covered. Now much more managable. Might even close for the day, a bullet dodged
I don't show my positive M2M as a policy. Shared this just to show that even with the best analysis, one may get trapped and lose. Important is to keep losses in control
Oh, some in TaMo PE too. Sqed off the backspread when I gave on twitter, at 474. Bought 490PE naked , that also worked out
I am going to teach you about my super secret indicator, always 100% accurate.
Grab a cup of tea/coffee or your fav glass of tipple
Soma days like yesterday, when the data gives a view totally against the apparent consensus view, it gets difficult to take a trade on that view. Specially if one has to share the view on national TV.
These are the days I turn to the indicator
There is this gentleman, who thinks he is god's gift to TA who posts his views on twitter ( he is also on a national channel 😉😉)
His normal bakwas is cryptic, means whether we go up or down he will claim he said so. Like " short term we may go down but longterm trend is up"
sqedoff 50% at 171 ( 197-171 = 26 = 1.6R)
sqedoff 25% at 152 ( 197-152 = 2.8R)
rest 25% SL at 190
Now how much do you sell ?
Say you have a capital of 10 lacs and your risk per trade is 0.5% per trade = Rs.5000
5000/R = 5000/16 = 300 ( 12 lots)
You sqoff 6 lots at 171, 3 lots at 152 and keep last 3 lots with 190SL
This is the position management
Maybe I am predicting a bit early, but the high of 16713 can be a top for sometime. Will get confirmation on closing ( today and tomorrow, 2 days of closings)and once this expiry gets over. Extremely dangerous negative divergences are shaping up on RSI and MFI
For TA enthusiasts, this is what I am seeing.
Negative divergences on MFI and RSI, MACD histogram.
Remember " a divergence is like a weather forecast that it may rain, but not a guarantee that it will rain. You prepare by carrying an umbrella when going out" - Martin Pring