Maybe I am predicting a bit early, but the high of 16713 can be a top for sometime. Will get confirmation on closing ( today and tomorrow, 2 days of closings)and once this expiry gets over. Extremely dangerous negative divergences are shaping up on RSI and MFI
For TA enthusiasts, this is what I am seeing.
Negative divergences on MFI and RSI, MACD histogram.

Remember " a divergence is like a weather forecast that it may rain, but not a guarantee that it will rain. You prepare by carrying an umbrella when going out" - Martin Pring
oh sorry, missed the pic
Today's bar is shaping up to be a top-out/reversal bar. First confirmation if we close tomorrow below the low of today

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More from @SubhadipNandy16

15 Sep
How I trade these levels. See the BNF Balance at 36613. When BNF took support there, simply sold the 36600pe at 197 with SL 213 ( day high)
213-197 = 16 = 1R

sqedoff 50% at 171 ( 197-171 = 26 = 1.6R)
sqedoff 25% at 152 ( 197-152 = 2.8R)
rest 25% SL at 190
Now how much do you sell ?
Say you have a capital of 10 lacs and your risk per trade is 0.5% per trade = Rs.5000
5000/R = 5000/16 = 300 ( 12 lots)
You sqoff 6 lots at 171, 3 lots at 152 and keep last 3 lots with 190SL
This is the position management
Read 5 tweets
23 Aug
Received quite a large number of enquiries on the main option trading webinar and the live handholding group. Rather than answering individually, explaining the major points here .

First read this :
This is a fully recorded workshop with 12+ hours of video. You also get access to all tools used in this workshop. System codes are on tradingview,
they are "invite only " indicators ( meaning you will be able to use the systems for lifetime, but the codes are locked )
You can subscribe if interested and start learning at your own pace. You will need a few weeks to understand and assimilate the concepts as they
are quite exhaustive and vast.
Read 12 tweets
21 Aug
My presentation on Money Management was based on a lot of sources as I mentioned. For traders interested on those sources , here they are
Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets by Ralph Vince

The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders by Ralph Vince
Read 11 tweets
20 Aug
Today's freak trade on the Nifty 16450CE reminds me of a very recent clubhouse discussion I had. Explained a black swan risk and how even an intraday trader faces it unknowingly. By definition, a black Swan is such an unexpected event that you have no way to prepare
The person who has posted the screen shot of losing 2 lacs plus on 10 lots of 16450CE is an intraday straddle seller. His backtests did not account for 100 rupee sold options getting sqedof at 600 or 800
So, this risk was not modelled into his backtest. Hence this is a black swan for him. The funniest part is, even after this all backtesting softwares will show profits as stops will be shown at say 120 or so on backtests
Read 5 tweets
20 Aug
Ok, time for some analysis. 65% said they will wait for the SL as per eod close. 35% said they would sqoff intraday.
Who is correct and who is wrong ?
Those who said intraday, say Reliance broke 2078 and you sqoff the trade, then it immediately jumps to 2085. What do you do, re enter ? then again it breaks 2078, what do you do, exit ?

This can go on for quite some time
The logic of the intraday sqoff comes from this idea that if Reliance falls say another 10-20% from 2078 by the time market closes, you are facing a bigger loss.
This idea is correct in futures/cash, but not in options
Read 12 tweets
5 Aug
Ok, so completed the 4th day of live handholding today. We are doing positional as well as day-trading. Lots of old students repeating the handholding to practice. My methods are also getting sharper :)
Whenever some one asks me what returns they can expect after doing the course, my answer is " returns are a function of risk ". When pushed further, my standard answer is " around 3%", I never ever commit above this 😀
This is the actual performance of my day-trading calls. All trades explained with logic so that traders can now repeat the trades on their own.
Capital = 10 lacs. Returns given for 3 scenarios :
1% per trade risk, 0.5% per trade risk and 0.25% per trade risk
Read 6 tweets

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