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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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26 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/3
The desire among investment bank bank economists, and the Fed, that inflation is transitory is so strong that they either ignore data that conflicts, or intentionally get it wrong.

This story is no different. It is wrong.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/3
Their is no need to get it wrong as the CME's website updates these numbers in real-time. It's one click away to get correct.

cmegroup.com/trading/intere…

As of 5 minutes ago, the probability of a JUNE rate hike was 66%. Not September as noted above.
3/3
This story also says the second rate hike is 2023.

Nope!

(add up the yellow highlights),
June 2022 odds of first rate hike is 66%

Sept 2022 second hike odds is 49.5% (Nov is well over 50%)

Dec 2022 third rate hike odds 45%. (Feb 2023 is well over 50%).
Forgot to attach the table

Add up the highlighted numbers and it gives you the odds of a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd hikes in 2022.

The Bloomberg story above says Sept for the 1st hike, 2023 for the 2nd hike.

The table says June, Sept and (almost) Dec for the first three hikes.

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
25 Nov
1/7
A thread about the latest with COVID.

Europe' case counts hit a new all-time, as did Germany.

Lockdowns, restrictions, and protests (sometimes violent) are everywhere in Europe.
2/7
The world hit a new 10 week high yesterday, and cases are going vertical (orange) line.
3/7
And the US is now moving up, no mistake about it (orange line in the last few weeks).

And, as we have noted before, whenever cases spike in one area, they eventually spike in other area.
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
19 Nov
1/4
Chicago hedge-fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin said he won a $43.2 million first-edition copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction on Thursday—and now he intends to lend it to a free Arkansas art museum.

wsj.com/articles/citad…
2/4
Yes, he is a long established big art buyer, and sits on many art museum boards.

But I do not believe he has shown interest in Revolutionary War era documents before last night.
3/4
He's not a crypto fan:

Last month at the Econ Club of Chicago, he told the audience that he doesn’t trade in cryptos because of its “regulatory uncertainty,” adding [he]“wished all this passion and energy that went into crypto was directed toward making the US stronger.”
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
19 Nov
1/5
What do Crypto prices correlate with?

A popular narrative now is an inflation hedge.

But as this chart shows, the correlation is poor (bottom panel). Of course, this look backwards so it could be an inflation hedge going forward.

But something else correlates better ... Image
2/5
Two charts below.

One (single line) is a standard price chart of ETH. The other (two line) is the Bloomberg Payments Company stock index (red) with the ETH price PLOTTED INVERSELY.
When shown like this, they do seem to move with each other. ImageImage
3/5
Below is the correlation (bottom panel) between payments and ETH (plotted inversely in top panel).

The correlation is getting more negative over time.

This mean the relationship between higher ETH prices and lower payment stocks, or an inverse relationship, is growing. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
18 Nov
1/4
Yesterday, Western Europe printed the highest daily case count of 2021 (bars). And it was the fourth highest daily count ever, only the November 2020 peak was higher. Image
2/4
Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands all spiked to new all-time records yesterday. ImageImageImage
3/4
Worldwide cases hit a two month high yesterday. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
17 Nov
1/7
*MERKEL SAYS CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN GERMANY IS `DRAMATIC'

It is the highest ever daily count (blue bars) and 7-day average (orange), and still going vertical.
2/7
Austria and the Netherlands are the same as Germany.
3/7
Western Europe is still surging and the 7-day average (orange) is the highest since January.
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
17 Nov
1/4
Biden told reporters on Tuesday to expect the announcement of a nominee for Fed chair in “the next four days.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/4
Note that Powell has never closed below 50% and is not zooming to near 100% in anticipation of this announcement.

Instead betting market volume is spiking and the Powell/Brainard spread is the narrowest ever.
3/4
 Reminder, I think the odds are

Powell 50.001%
Brainard 49.999%
It is that close.
Read 4 tweets

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