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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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18 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/4
Yesterday, Western Europe printed the highest daily case count of 2021 (bars). And it was the fourth highest daily count ever, only the November 2020 peak was higher. Image
2/4
Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands all spiked to new all-time records yesterday. ImageImageImage
3/4
Worldwide cases hit a two month high yesterday. Image
4/4
The UK continues to inch higher.

And the US uptrend is accelerating. ImageImage

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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
19 Nov
1/4
Chicago hedge-fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin said he won a $43.2 million first-edition copy of the U.S. Constitution at a Sotheby’s auction on Thursday—and now he intends to lend it to a free Arkansas art museum.

wsj.com/articles/citad…
2/4
Yes, he is a long established big art buyer, and sits on many art museum boards.

But I do not believe he has shown interest in Revolutionary War era documents before last night.
3/4
He's not a crypto fan:

Last month at the Econ Club of Chicago, he told the audience that he doesn’t trade in cryptos because of its “regulatory uncertainty,” adding [he]“wished all this passion and energy that went into crypto was directed toward making the US stronger.”
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
19 Nov
1/5
What do Crypto prices correlate with?

A popular narrative now is an inflation hedge.

But as this chart shows, the correlation is poor (bottom panel). Of course, this look backwards so it could be an inflation hedge going forward.

But something else correlates better ... Image
2/5
Two charts below.

One (single line) is a standard price chart of ETH. The other (two line) is the Bloomberg Payments Company stock index (red) with the ETH price PLOTTED INVERSELY.
When shown like this, they do seem to move with each other. ImageImage
3/5
Below is the correlation (bottom panel) between payments and ETH (plotted inversely in top panel).

The correlation is getting more negative over time.

This mean the relationship between higher ETH prices and lower payment stocks, or an inverse relationship, is growing. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
17 Nov
1/7
*MERKEL SAYS CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN GERMANY IS `DRAMATIC'

It is the highest ever daily count (blue bars) and 7-day average (orange), and still going vertical.
2/7
Austria and the Netherlands are the same as Germany.
3/7
Western Europe is still surging and the 7-day average (orange) is the highest since January.
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
17 Nov
1/4
Biden told reporters on Tuesday to expect the announcement of a nominee for Fed chair in “the next four days.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/4
Note that Powell has never closed below 50% and is not zooming to near 100% in anticipation of this announcement.

Instead betting market volume is spiking and the Powell/Brainard spread is the narrowest ever.
3/4
 Reminder, I think the odds are

Powell 50.001%
Brainard 49.999%
It is that close.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
15 Nov
1/5
Mr. Biden met each candidate separately for interviews on Nov. 4, and he was joined in the Oval Office for those meetings with only one other adviser, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, according to people familiar with the matter.

wsj.com/articles/biden…
2/5
Each meeting was scheduled for one hour, though Ms. Brainard’s ran slightly over the allotted time, one of these people said. Some people familiar with the matter said Ms. Brainard’s meeting went better than expected.
3/5
Yet another story that paints Brainard in a better light than Powell.

But the betting markets are still steadfast that Powell is 70-ish% to get renominated.

Recall I think it is
Powell 50.001%
Brainard 49.999%
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
15 Nov
1/6
60 Minutes did a segment on the Supply Chain

As I have been saying for weeks now ... What is the worst day of the supply chain problem? Answer, today. And tomorrow should be a new extreme.

cbsnews.com/news/supply-ch…
2/6

This gives the impression is the chain is at 100% and it will take years to expand it. And that assumes everyone wants to invest the big $$$ to do it.

So, to repeat myself, how do you fix this? Zoom prices much higher so we stop buying stuff.

See the latest CPI report
2/6
 Transcript:

Peterson: If they can't get their products in in time for the holiday season. And of course it also means consumers are going to pay really high prices for everything.

Whitaker: So this is what inflation looks like?

Peterson: Yeah, this is inflation first-hand.
Read 6 tweets

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