Thread by @EmpireinWinter

A thoughtful reading more open to the downside on Omicron implication (technical, detailed) @Lidsville

'Biden administration systematically failed to support or actively denigrated all non-pharmaceutical interventions.'

nakedcapitalism.com/2021/11/probab…

'we are collectively about to pay for the eagerness of the officialdom to declare the pandemic over at every possible turn & put all their chips on a non-sterilizing vaccine...very useful at preventing worst outcomes...but does little to prevent transmission of Delta'

Sound familiar, #bcpoli?
Biden Admin: 'actively encouraged the vaccinated to abandon masks (positioning non-masking as proof of virtue). The CDC & WHO have been silent on ventilation & have actively opposing the aerosol theory of transmission.'

'Even social distancing has been discouraged with Fauci recommending that the vaccinated carry on as if it were the old normal over Thanksgiving.'

'when we need [NPIs] to hold the line until some sort of vaccine/treatment rescue arrives, they have all been systematically undermined & rendered dysfunctional by Biden’s vax only policy (a view embraced by the Dem. base...as a marker of tribal affiliation).'

'By letting business drive public health policy with its quest for a “return to normal,” the entire last year was squandered, not just NPIs, but testing, contact tracing, international infection control standards, everything. We said this amounted operational to “Let ‘er rip.”'

'B.1.1.529 may show us the true cost of that recklessness....
Remember, as things appear now, B.1.1.529 is so different that it might not displace Delta but co-exist with it, meaning we may now have two pandemics underway.'

Now...one possible silver lining to this cloud may be that B.1.1.529 winds up being less lethal and/or generates less morbidity than recent variants. But we can’t pin our hopes on a lucky break.'

'underplaying the risk is wrong-headed at the stage when containment is still possible. Recall Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s warning in late January 2020, which was not heeded: that the downside of Covid-19 was that it could be a pandemic, and the risk was that of ruin.'

Link to Taleb et al's paper developing a mathematical risk-based expression for the precautionary principle:
necsi.edu/systemic-risk-…

'The general (non-naive) precautionary principle [3] delineates conditions where actions must be taken to reduce risk of ruin, and traditional cost-benefit analyses must not be used. These are ruin problems...'

'over time, exposure to tail events leads to a certain eventual extinction. While there is a very high probability for humanity surviving a single such event, over time, there is eventually zero probability of surviving repeated exposures to such events.'
[Omicron to Omega]

'While repeated risks can be taken by individuals with a limited life expectancy, ruin exposures must never be taken at the systemic & collective level.'

'In technical terms, the precautionary principle applies when traditional statistical averages are invalid because risks are not ergodic.'

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