Nov 27, 2021: In response to the new variant outbreak growing in the southern part of the African continent, Europe as a unit, the US and many other countries, have limited travel from South Africa and adjacent countries.
2/
The World Health Network thanks South Africa for sounding the alarm and congratulates countries for responding rapidly, much faster and more decisively than with the original spread of the Coronavirus and the successive variants.
3/
Mystery: Why so high infection rate of passengers arriving in Amsterdam? 61/600 = ~10%
Especially since tested negative prior to departure.
Maybe families/groups pre-infected.
Maybe groups on prior connecting flights infected on the way.
Or, Maybe Omicron infects fast
1/
Attached is a comparison of Delta (orange) with prior variants (green) showing Delta has much more rapid onset of positive PCR test: about 10% of infections in two days.
If Omicron is even faster, perhaps waiting room or on same flight infections are responsible.
2/
It has been clarified that tests were not required before the flight. This makes it possible that there were a higher number of people who were infected before the flight. Still, the percentage is much higher than would be expected even in this case.
Japanese government: Japanese nationals traveling from Eswatini Zimbabwe Namibia Botswana South Africa Lesotho must quarantine at gov accommodations for 10 days and take COVID tests on 3rd, 6th, 10th days. Japan has not yet opened up to foreign nationals
“The last thing we need is to bring in a new variant that will cause even more problems,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn said. The member nations of the EU have experienced a massive spike in cases recently.
2/
"EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said flights will have to “be suspended until we have a clear understanding about the danger posed by this new variant, and travelers returning from this region should respect strict quarantine rules.”
Very rough estimate of Nu variant mortality is 8X original variant based upon the current rough estimate of transmissibility, assuming they track each other.
Corrections welcome.
(Figure type labeled Nu)
Error range (estimated in this way) is 3X-12X
Transmission rate depends significantly on the density of viral particles in airborne particles, which depends on the rate of generation of the virus. The severity of the disease also depends on the replication rate of the virus. Previous variants are consistent with this.
We do not know that the existing vaccines will prevent infection or severe disease. The extent of mutation indicates the opposite. Just as at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, uncertainty means risk should not be taken. Have we learned the lesson?
Infections we know about today happened a few days to two weeks ago.
Infections that happened today will only be known in a few days to two weeks from now.
Where should we stop travel from? Everywhere.
Only then will we stop it from getting most places.
Update on the new B.1.1.529 variant spreading rapidly in South Africa.
Cases are increasing nationally with R=1.47 after recent decline. Cases are not growing everywhere. They are growing particularly in Gauteng.
1/
Gauteng is a small province containing Johanesburg, the largest city in South Africa. The Test positivity has been at about 1% and is still at 1% in much of the province, but one area, Tshwane, has part with positivity at 30%.
This increase happened within two weeks.
2/
The estimated R value of the local increase is 1.93, significantly larger than the national value (1.47).