Very rough estimate of Nu variant mortality is 8X original variant based upon the current rough estimate of transmissibility, assuming they track each other.
Corrections welcome.
(Figure type labeled Nu)
Corrections welcome.
(Figure type labeled Nu)
Error range (estimated in this way) is 3X-12X
Transmission rate depends significantly on the density of viral particles in airborne particles, which depends on the rate of generation of the virus. The severity of the disease also depends on the replication rate of the virus. Previous variants are consistent with this.
For Gamma transmissibility is 1.38X, mortality 1.50X
For Alpha transmissibility is 1.29X, mortality 1.59X
For Delta transmissibility is 1.97X, mortality 2.37X
For Nu transmissibility (current rough estimate) is ~6X
For Alpha transmissibility is 1.29X, mortality 1.59X
For Delta transmissibility is 1.97X, mortality 2.37X
For Nu transmissibility (current rough estimate) is ~6X
The first order estimate would just say, transmissibility increase is just the same factor as the mortality factor.
BUt the mortalities are a bit larger overall.
Doing this a bit more consistently, and with uncertainty of the values we know, gives the range 3X-12X.
BUt the mortalities are a bit larger overall.
Doing this a bit more consistently, and with uncertainty of the values we know, gives the range 3X-12X.
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