As a periodic Warringah resident: It is a very affluent Sydney seat & residents rarely need anything from Govt which is why Zali could be a pretty mediocre/low energy local MP & still get reelected. At the same time, Gladys would have enormous appeal to the non-broken majority.
If you know the Northern Beaches well, there is nothing Zali has really done except send an occasional letter promoting green stuff (scripted by her campaign's donors?). This said, no one in Warringah needs much from Govt & probably never thinks much of her except skiing bronze
I suspect that Mike Baird would also win Warringah if he ran. He would win all Abbott's voters and would get a lot of Zali's who see Mike as the young youth minister from the many churches up and down the northern beaches. Mike could get in a Tesla & do all the green stuff too
If you live outside Sydney & think "But ICAC?" .... if you grow up in/around Sydney, you grow up with decades of corruption & the historic Askin/Wran hangover. What Gladys did with Maguire was very stupid but most women/men [esp in media/politics] have relationships like Gladys'
If Zali has actually done anything in Warringah in the past 3 years, would happy to be enlightened. Zali is a very nice person but I am just not sure she got anything done for the northern beaches ... I mean Abbott was phoning it in as well by the end.
Warringah TL:DR - as I have said on #TheDrum if corruption was an Olympic sport, NSW would supply the Australian squad. So far, on the evidence before ICAC, Gladys would not even be suggested for the NSW Possibles squad for the "Possibles vs Probables" game.
To be fair - Zali is not alone here. The reason why a few Sydney Liberal MPs may get challenges (I doubt successful) from local Zali-like GetUp/Green money supported candidates is that they are lazy MPs, focused on Canberra not their locals & do not do much in their electorates.

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More from @GrayConnolly

28 Nov
I owe @yhazony & others an Edmund Burke explainer/thread based on this good and provocative piece in the American Affairs journal here & my continued & obviously reasonable suspicion of anyone who is a Whig & not a Tory, such as Burke himself:

americanaffairsjournal.org/2020/02/americ…
As the article points out, Burke had, since 1766, ie ~10 years before the Americans rebel, considered that distance alone would see the Americans want some element of self government. This, though, they did have, at least as much as in other comparable empires of that time.
Burke did take the view that the Americans rebelled to keep what they "had under the English constitution". However, what British subjects did have under that constitution was obligations to the King, including paying taxes, and few in 1776 had any direct role in the government.
Read 14 tweets
26 Nov
Very bad take from @deborah_knight here - Australia is a nation of 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc chances. Steve Smith has done his penance and suffered enough. We need to be a people that gives the repentant a fresh start, not scold them always for a past they cannot change.
Am intrigued by the focus on Australian Cricket's public sinners versus the complete disinterest shown by Media (esp the ABC) in the on-the-record allegations of sexual harassment and grooming in the Matildas football squad. Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov
I signed this petition (link fixed) re the ABC's reporting on 2nd Commando Regiment & alleged Afghan war crimes. The ABC should provide the evidence for its claims. I note @HestonRussell disputes the story & strangely he was not approached for an interview
aph.gov.au/e-petitions/pe…
There is a similar pattern to the 2 Commando allegations👆 here 👇 it would be, simply, absurd, for the ADF to give access to historians to materials in the Special Prosecutor's hands for Afghan war crimes trials & which if disclosed would prejudice trials
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
Many of these alleged Afghan War crimes occurred a decade (plus) ago. It is hard to understand why the OSI's prosecutions, if their cases are as strong as we have been told they are, have not been brought with more speed & particularity. A smear or allegation is not any proof etc
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
Attention: Lawyers (solicitor/attorney/barrister/advocat)
I am doing a Zoom this evening for aspiring Lawyers & have one question: what is one matter you know now that you wish you knew when you commenced? Mine is that lawyers praised as "very commerical" are usually bad at law.
So, legal beagles, please provide your "what I wish I had known" below .... the rule of law thanks you, etc
Otherwise it is me discussing how the law, generally, has never recovered from abolition of Privy Council appeals ... which is a position I would obviously maintain but yet I feel is of little urgent need for the youth.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
At the risk of repeating myself .... the whole point of Senators - yes, an "elected representative" - is to review & probe the activities of the executive government & its emanations, such as the ABC. Imagine saying this about the armed forces or the tax office?
The very same people who think the Crown & executive has no valid privileges to protect in respect of national security materials & operational matters also think the ABC has immunity from the review functions of the Senate. The country needs a massive civics lesson, it seems.
You: "Federal ICAC now - transparency in Government!"

Also you: "The Senate cannot review the ABC's internal processes while the ABC is conducting some review, too"
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
Noted this from @FrenchHist - have thoughts. First would be Marshal Foch, who really did an incredible job in WW1 (Governing Socialists would originally not appoint Foch to higher command - even with the Germans at the gates of Paris - as Foch was a Catholic & a Monarchist) Image
My other thoughts were Turenne (who was French) and Marshal de Saxe (who was German but in French service). Charles Martel saved Europe and Charlemagne founded the modern idea of Europe. What of St Joan of Arc? What of the great engineer, Vauban?
Then there are the lesser known French worthies: the Marquis de Montalembert (both General and Sapper ... must have been exhausting company given the latter) and the Duke of Vendome ... and in more modern times, Marshal d'Esperey and Marshal Leclerc
Read 6 tweets

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