As a periodic Warringah resident: It is a very affluent Sydney seat & residents rarely need anything from Govt which is why Zali could be a pretty mediocre/low energy local MP & still get reelected. At the same time, Gladys would have enormous appeal to the non-broken majority. 
If you know the Northern Beaches well, there is nothing Zali has really done except send an occasional letter promoting green stuff (scripted by her campaign's donors?). This said, no one in Warringah needs much from Govt & probably never thinks much of her except skiing bronze
I suspect that Mike Baird would also win Warringah if he ran. He would win all Abbott's voters and would get a lot of Zali's who see Mike as the young youth minister from the many churches up and down the northern beaches. Mike could get in a Tesla & do all the green stuff too
If you live outside Sydney & think "But ICAC?" .... if you grow up in/around Sydney, you grow up with decades of corruption & the historic Askin/Wran hangover. What Gladys did with Maguire was very stupid but most women/men [esp in media/politics] have relationships like Gladys'
If Zali has actually done anything in Warringah in the past 3 years, would happy to be enlightened. Zali is a very nice person but I am just not sure she got anything done for the northern beaches ... I mean Abbott was phoning it in as well by the end.
Warringah TL:DR - as I have said on #TheDrum if corruption was an Olympic sport, NSW would supply the Australian squad. So far, on the evidence before ICAC, Gladys would not even be suggested for the NSW Possibles squad for the "Possibles vs Probables" game.
To be fair - Zali is not alone here. The reason why a few Sydney Liberal MPs may get challenges (I doubt successful) from local Zali-like GetUp/Green money supported candidates is that they are lazy MPs, focused on Canberra not their locals & do not do much in their electorates.
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