💯 even if true that variants get trade off lethality for transmissibility over time, a hypothetical variant that is 20% less lethal but 20% more contagious kills more people than the original virus (because cases compound → larger exposure → more total deaths)
https://twitter.com/wltschirano/status/1464310436132708352
(I didn’t check the estimate Giullaume quoted; here, I was just commenting on his general point.)
That said, I question the hypothesis that variants always trade off lethality for transmissibility. While I understand that more transmissible variants get selected, I don’t see why a variant couldn’t be both more transmissible and more lethal.
A bit exaggerated of an example, but it shows well my point above
https://twitter.com/mattecapu/status/1464603322875269125
The upper bound doesn’t include reinfections.
And even if it did, COVID is deadlier than flu; a new variant would have to drop mortality *a lot* to bring it on par with flu’s.
And even if it did, COVID is deadlier than flu; a new variant would have to drop mortality *a lot* to bring it on par with flu’s.
https://twitter.com/sf_sun_rise/status/1464677780956667908
Also, the chairwoman who said that Omicron causes mild disease also said the below, so I don’t think she can be trusted.
I’d advise precaution + see how Omicron behaves in an older population.
I’d advise precaution + see how Omicron behaves in an older population.
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