Kirk Kerkorian is one of my favorite rags to riches stories. A high school dropout who built the largest casinos and nearly owned Chrysler. A shrewd and enthusiastic dealmaker with a chip on his shoulder.
“Life is a big craps game. I've got to tell you, it's all been fun.”
"When you're a self-made man you start very early in life. In my case it was at nine years old when I started bringing income into the family. You get a drive that's a little different, maybe a little stronger, than somebody who inherited."
Kerkorian was born in 1917 to Armenian immigrants in California. His father bought up ranches and became San Joaquin's 'raisin baron' before going bankrupt under a mountain of debt.
Kerkorian dropped out of school and worked odd jobs, he nearly became a professional boxer.
When a coworker took him to a flight school, Kerkorian found a lifelong passion.
During WW II, he flew Mosquito planes across the ocean for the British Air Force. It was dangerous work but allowed him to build a nest egg.
After the war, he made money by spotting value in army surplus planes. He bought, refurbished, and sold them, building up capital deal by deal.
He also made charter flights to Las Vegas and became a regular at the tables alongside his customers.
“We were just trying to eat in those days, and parlay what we did have into something better.”
“I had $10,000 to my name, a car, no home, a wife. I was 28 years old so I took the airplane and flew charters to Las Vegas and from there I got interested in the hotel business.”
He fell in love with Vegas: “I don’t think there is a sky here. You see the sun 95 percent of the time. You see the most beautiful hills.”
His first small investment in the Dunes casino was a bust. “I learned then not to invest in a business that I didn’t run.”
In 1962, he sold his regional airline to carmaker Studebaker for $1mm.
He invested the cash in a large plot of land. He bartered with owners of small nearby properties and connected his land to the strip. It became the prime piece of property on which Caesar's Palace was built.
He turned $1mm into $9mm and also bought back his company - turns out Studebaker knew nothing about running an airline.
Flush with cash he was ready for his big move: He was going to build the city's biggest hotel, the International with a thousand rooms.
Kerkorian was on a roll. He sold his airline again and took a stake in a public carrier. He also bought into the struggling MGM studio.
And his International was a big success. On paper he was worth $180mm. But he was heavily leveraged and all his cash was tied up.
Kerkorian had used bridge financing from European banks. He planned to sell stock in the International to raise cash.
But his voice appeared on tape at the trial of a prominent mobster. Kerkorian called it the settlement of gambling debt. The SEC blocked his public stock sale.
The International’s stock plummeted from $65 to $6.50. And Kerkorian was forced to sell control to patient money - the Hilton family. The International became the Las Vegas Hilton. Kerkorian had learned an expensive lesson.
“We have built the number one hotel in the world. It was an excellent enterprise, I have no regrets.”
He had still cashed out some $50mm and was ready for the next play: MGM.
The money-losing studio had an extensive library of films and real estate. Kerkorian saw $69 of value vs. a $25 share price. He acquired a controlling stake.
The turnaround was a yard sale of movie memorabilia. Kerkorian was called a “one man wrecking crew" as he slashed costs.
He stopped the bleeding but the studio didn't flourish.
His real angle were its "three golden letters." He used the brand and Hollywood ambience for his next iteration of Vegas's biggest hotel: the MGM Grand.
The casino was another success and he split it from the studio.
It was also the site of Vegas's deadliest fire in 1980. Kerkorian later sold it to Bally's and built today's MGM Grand in 1993.
He merged MGM with the United Artists studio but the business still wasn't thriving. It was time to monetize.
He knew Ted Turner desperately wanted a library to fees his new cable channels. Kerkorian told him he could lock up MGM - if he committed within 2 weeks.
Turner was hooked. Milken's Drexel was to line up the financing. Kerkorian would buy back the UA studio to make deal feasible.
But MGM's movies were flopping and Drexel couldn't sell the debt. Turner Broadcasting was going to be too levered. And he was locked into the deal.
They renegotiated and reduced the cash portion. Kerkorian got 14% yielding preferred stock instead. Dividend payable in cash or common stock.
The sale went through and Turner was starting to sweat. Kerkorian was going to accumulate voting stock over time through the dividends.
Turner called up John Malone: “You’ve got to do something or CNN will become KNN, Kerkorian News Network!” Malone and other cable operators injected cash. And Kerkorian bought back the studio, leaving Turner with just the library.
Kirk then sold the studio to Giancarlo Parretti for $1.4bn and bought it back when Parretti went bankrupt. In 2004, it went to Sony for good for $4bn.
In the 1990s, Kirk also made a big bet on the recovering Chrysler and earned $2.7bn in profits
When Steve Wynn struggled in 2000, Kirk bought his Mirage Resorts. And later the Mandalay Bay.
“Life will be good in Kirkville,” Wynn joked. Kerkorian, the onetime dropout, now towered over the strip.
But Kerkorian never stopped playing and his net worth was decimated during the financial crisis. He passed away in 2015 at the age of 98.
I love his story for his enthusiasm and his resilience. He was an outsider who bested the naysayers.
He rode the big wave in American leisure spending and expertly traded assets within his circle of competence. And he demonstrated both the value and danger of leverage.
"There are two good times to be an investor: when valuations are low overall, and when dispersion is high." by @ByrneHobart
"There are times when the overall market is expensive, but the cheapest assets out there are really incredibly cheap."
"the heyday of value investing in the 50s and 60s, one of the things that stands out is that they were able to find tiny cheap companies with high-quality economics and good management teams. Not only was the market for stocks inefficient, but the market for talent was, too."
Vs. today
"the statement “this small, obscure company is in a good business, is well-run compared to its peers, and looks quite cheap” requires a lot of explaining, because so many forces conspire to ensure that sufficiently good companies remain neither small not cheap for long"
"1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path."
"A combination of lucky economic advantages and a culture hardened by the Depression and anchored in cooperation shifted when Baby Boomers began coming of age."
"Everything in finance is data within the context of expectations. One of the biggest shifts of the last century happened when the economic winds began blowing in a different, uneven direction, but people’s expectations were still rooted in a post-war culture of equality.
Not necessarily equality of income, although there was that. But equality in lifestyle and consumption expectations."
"Sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened when, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy:
Bill Gates on what he learned from Buffett in 1996
"When you are with Warren, you can tell how much he loves his work. When he explains stuff, it’s never “Hey, I’m smart about this, I’m going to impress you.” It’s more like “This is so interesting and it’s actually very simple..
I’ll just explain it to you and you’ll realize how dumb it was that it took me a long time to figure it out.”
And when he shares it with you, using his keen sense of humor to help make the point, it does seem simple."
"Whenever somebody says to me, “Meet so-and-so; he’s the smartest guy ever” my defenses go up. People overestimate the merit of that to which they’ve been exposed. So the fact that people called Warren Buffett unique didn’t impress me much.
"Al Rappaport spoke about 3 things that have become central to my work:
1: It’s all about cash — not accounting numbers.
2: Valuation and competitive strategy have to be considered together.
3: The market provides a useful signal for managers.
"Most investors act as if their task is to figure out a stock’s value and then to compare that value to the price. Our approach reverses this mindset. We start with the only thing we know for sure - the price - and then assess what must happen to realize an attractive return."
"Determine what expectations are currently priced in. How well do key value drivers have to perform?
Buy, sell, or hold based on the difference between the stock price and expected value. We develop a specific framework, which we call the “expectations infrastructure."
Excited to share my conversation with @scmallaby who shared his research process and insights on legendary investors.
“The key was to do an unreasonable amount of preparation work. It shows that you're serious and not wasting people's time by asking obvious questions.”
“What you really want to know is their thought process around an important or interesting trade. How did they make the call? How did they develop conviction? How did they hold on during the inevitable hiccups and adversity? It's that reconstruction of the case study.”
“I often show up with very detailed notes and a timeline. I'm able to say that, ‘I know from your letter that in this month you made a profit on dollar/yen. Dollar/yen had a big move on the 15th and 16th of that month. I really tried to kind of prompt them as much as possible.”
We all accumulate stuff, ideas, positions. Clutter accumulates on our bookshelves and calendars, in our portfolios and minds.
To be open for the new, we have to create empty space. Or risk being forced into a clean slate by an increasing disconnect from reality.
“If Berkshire has made modest progress, a good deal of it is because Warren and I are very good at destroying our own best-loved ideas. Any year that you don’t destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year.” -Charlie Munger
.@cdixon wrote about the hill climbing problem: to reach the highest peak without visibility requires some randomness in order to avoid getting stuck on a lower hill.
Getting to better ideas requires slack and time for exploration, lest we settle for 'good enough.'