Fantastic by @morganhousel

"1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path."

"A combination of lucky economic advantages and a culture hardened by the Depression and anchored in cooperation shifted when Baby Boomers began coming of age."
"Everything in finance is data within the context of expectations. One of the biggest shifts of the last century happened when the economic winds began blowing in a different, uneven direction, but people’s expectations were still rooted in a post-war culture of equality.
Not necessarily equality of income, although there was that. But equality in lifestyle and consumption expectations."

"Sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened when, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy:
That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable."

"Rising incomes among a small group of Americans led to that group breaking away in lifestyle."
"And everyone else was watching – fueled by Madison Avenue and the internet."

"The lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising."

collaborativefund.com/blog/how-this-…

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More from @NeckarValue

30 Nov
"There are two good times to be an investor: when valuations are low overall, and when dispersion is high." by @ByrneHobart
"There are times when the overall market is expensive, but the cheapest assets out there are really incredibly cheap."
"the heyday of value investing in the 50s and 60s, one of the things that stands out is that they were able to find tiny cheap companies with high-quality economics and good management teams. Not only was the market for stocks inefficient, but the market for talent was, too."
Vs. today
"the statement “this small, obscure company is in a good business, is well-run compared to its peers, and looks quite cheap” requires a lot of explaining, because so many forces conspire to ensure that sufficiently good companies remain neither small not cheap for long"
Read 7 tweets
27 Nov
Kirk Kerkorian is one of my favorite rags to riches stories. A high school dropout who built the largest casinos and nearly owned Chrysler. A shrewd and enthusiastic dealmaker with a chip on his shoulder.

“Life is a big craps game. I've got to tell you, it's all been fun.” Image
"When you're a self-made man you start very early in life. In my case it was at nine years old when I started bringing income into the family. You get a drive that's a little different, maybe a little stronger, than somebody who inherited." Image
Kerkorian was born in 1917 to Armenian immigrants in California. His father bought up ranches and became San Joaquin's 'raisin baron' before going bankrupt under a mountain of debt.

Kerkorian dropped out of school and worked odd jobs, he nearly became a professional boxer.
Read 25 tweets
26 Nov
Bill Gates on what he learned from Buffett in 1996

"When you are with Warren, you can tell how much he loves his work. When he explains stuff, it’s never “Hey, I’m smart about this, I’m going to impress you.” It’s more like “This is so interesting and it’s actually very simple..
I’ll just explain it to you and you’ll realize how dumb it was that it took me a long time to figure it out.”

And when he shares it with you, using his keen sense of humor to help make the point, it does seem simple."
"Whenever somebody says to me, “Meet so-and-so; he’s the smartest guy ever” my defenses go up. People overestimate the merit of that to which they’ve been exposed. So the fact that people called Warren Buffett unique didn’t impress me much.
Read 13 tweets
23 Nov
Fantastic read by @mjmauboussin

"Al Rappaport spoke about 3 things that have become central to my work:

1: It’s all about cash — not accounting numbers.

2: Valuation and competitive strategy have to be considered together.

3: The market provides a useful signal for managers.
"Most investors act as if their task is to figure out a stock’s value and then to compare that value to the price. Our approach reverses this mindset. We start with the only thing we know for sure - the price - and then assess what must happen to realize an attractive return."
"Determine what expectations are currently priced in. How well do key value drivers have to perform?

Buy, sell, or hold based on the difference between the stock price and expected value. We develop a specific framework, which we call the “expectations infrastructure."
Read 15 tweets
19 Nov
Excited to share my conversation with @scmallaby who shared his research process and insights on legendary investors.

“The key was to do an unreasonable amount of preparation work. It shows that you're serious and not wasting people's time by asking obvious questions.”
“What you really want to know is their thought process around an important or interesting trade. How did they make the call? How did they develop conviction? How did they hold on during the inevitable hiccups and adversity? It's that reconstruction of the case study.”
“I often show up with very detailed notes and a timeline. I'm able to say that, ‘I know from your letter that in this month you made a profit on dollar/yen. Dollar/yen had a big move on the 15th and 16th of that month. I really tried to kind of prompt them as much as possible.”
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
We all accumulate stuff, ideas, positions. Clutter accumulates on our bookshelves and calendars, in our portfolios and minds.

To be open for the new, we have to create empty space. Or risk being forced into a clean slate by an increasing disconnect from reality.
“If Berkshire has made modest progress, a good deal of it is because Warren and I are very good at destroying our own best-loved ideas. Any year that you don’t destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year.” -Charlie Munger
.@cdixon wrote about the hill climbing problem: to reach the highest peak without visibility requires some randomness in order to avoid getting stuck on a lower hill.

Getting to better ideas requires slack and time for exploration, lest we settle for 'good enough.'
Read 9 tweets

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