Thread by @HZiauddeen

🧵 COVID-19 Omicron: it's worrying because it's expected, as are the reactions to it

About: 'you're scaremongering', 'wait for more information', 'it's the bloody COVID panic-mongers'

TL; DR: FFS just look at everything we've seen and learnt over the last 20 months!
(1/30)

As we approach the 2nd birthday of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is surprising how the stark biological reality of SARS-CoV-2 remains somehow a matter of contention. Well, not very surprising because that's what mis- and disinformation have actively been doing.
(2/30)

At the core of this biological reality is this:
SARS-CoV-2 IS A VIRUS.
Therefore it does not, and cannot, know or care about what you think about it, about how it should behave, and whatever hubristic attitude you adopt towards it.
(3/30)

Plus SARS-CoV-2 is still a novel virus. We're still learning about what all it does & what its long-term effects are going to be. But we already know it does a lot of worrying things (microvascular damage, brain invasion, autoimmunity) and, that it has long-term effects.
(4/30)

We've seen it evolve into new variants that are more transmissible and more virulent, with the new variants replacing their predecessors. We've seen it affect immune systems and evade them to re-infect people, even those who have been doubly and triply vaccinated.
(5/30)

And we have not just learnt all this through passive observation. We have virologists, immunologists & other scientists who have studied this virus, what it can do & correctly predicted how it would develop.

Follow @fitterhappierAJ @ChristosArgyrop @VirusesImmunity
(6/30)

We are fortunate to have a lot of people who know how viruses work and evolve and what the impacts of changes in their genetic code are likely to be. And what they all say is: uncontrolled transmission is dangerous and promotes virus adaptation.
(7/30)

Over the last year we have a lot of prominent scientists talking about how SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic and 'like the flu' (both of these mean different things). This may happen over a long period of time (especially if you measure it in lives lost & damaged).
(8/30)

But here's the thing, you can look at how the virus is evolving and what genetic changes it is accumulating to see if that is indeed what is really happening. It's not. Quite the opposite.

Because a virus does & can not, know or care about how you think it should behave.
(9/30)

This virus has only become more serious over time.
At a conservative estimate we've had 5.2M deaths worldwide, 150K+ in the UK.
What is shocking about these figures is that somehow they have failed to convince a lot of people that this is very serious indeed.
(10/30)

The point I'm emphasising with the delicate touch of a sledgehammer is: this is the biological reality that we are dealing with. This is what is at the centre of the pandemic and this does not go away, whatever you choose to believe.
(11/30)

You can of course choose to believe whatever you want about this & indeed doing so is vital to taking any position that is opposed to controlling the pandemic- anti-mask, anti-mitigations in school, pro-infecting children, anti-vax.
(12/30)

In fact the organised movements that advocate these positions do actively counter this reality with misinformation and disinformation.

The virus of course does and can not, know or care about what you think about it, & whatever hubristic attitude you adopt towards it.
(13/30)

So Omicron is worrying because it is expected. And the reactions to the concerns being raised about it are expected as well, especially from those who either ignore or deny the reality at the core of the pandemic.
This is scary, people are not scaremongering.
(14/30)

Btw, if you doubt all the above, perhaps the following will give you pause for thought. Within 24 hours of being announced, Omicron was declared a VOC and action was taken (including travel restrictions) rapidly to counter its spread.
(15/30)

This was done by govts (including the UK) that have been sceptical and slow to act thus far. Yes, it's unfair that South Africa is being penalised for helping the rest of the world, but look, the fact that these govts are acting should tell you how serious this.
(16/30)

And here I come to what is at the heart of the despair and pessimism that so many of us feel. Were we just dealing with the virus evolving, that would be expected and we could think of ways of dealing with that, we have the brains and the expertise to do that.
(17/30)

What we don't have is enough of the leadership that would get this situation under control and protect the populace. The actions of so many western countries through this pandemic have been shocking, in particular those like the UK that have promoted uncontrolled spread.
(18/30)

These actions have led to the development of variants that have threatened the rest of the world. The failure to control a global pandemic means that no country can protect its own indefinitely. But let me be clear, this is not just about political leadership.
(19/30)

The organised forces that have fiercely advocated against masks, vaccines, mitigations in schools, have all played a huge role in how things have unfolded across the globe. The promotion of these positions and attitudes has been hugely damaging.
(20/30)

What all this has led to is a situation in which the damage done is so severe, that it is hard to reverse. How do you convince the public now that COVID is serious, it is airborne, that precautions are necessary, that vaccines are essential but won't work in isolation.
(21/30)

So, what is possibly even scarier than a more transmissible and possibly more virulent variant, is the fact that we are living in systems that will not take the necessary steps to deal with it and protect and support people.
Exhibit A: Johnson's briefing of 26/11/21.
(22/30)

So when we raise the alarm about this, it's in the hope that it might influence people in positions of leadership, and to give people information that they are not getting from the sources that should give it to them, like the govt & public health.
(23/30)

In addition to not recognising/considering the biological reality of the pandemic, there is one other factor that I have raised several times before and that is about the Frame of Reference and how power controls it and usually keeps it focused on the now.
(24/30)

It doesn't matter how we got here, or what happened before including the mistakes we made, we're here now, what do we do now? One point I have not emphasised enough is how the frame of reference also keeps us focused on now for the future.
(25/30)

i.e. Let's not think about the future consequences of our decisions, predictably disastrous as they will be. Let's not think about or work towards a better future, just for a triumphant present for those who are winning this and those who just think they are.
(26/30)

So many of the ills that people suffered during this pandemic have been because their govt failed to control the pandemic & look after them. Had we got on top of this early, so much of this could have been minimised, not just in the past 20 months but also for the future.
(27/30)

What do I mean by the latter? Failing to control the pandemic has not just been bad over the last 20 months, it'll get worse over the coming years. The future economic, social and health losses will be huge and again this was entirely predictable.
(28/30)

Let me leave with you just one example. 20 months in we have lost large numbers of our healthcare and teaching workforces (to death, LongCOVID, burn out and departure) and created conditions that will only compound the problem. This is a massive loss of human capital.
(29/30)

These are people who take years to train and are not easily replaced.
Forget, what you'll do once you're out of the pandemic. How will you keep health services and schools running next year without the people who are absolutely integral to these systems?
(30/30)

Tagging this thread on cost to human capital here

https://twitter.com/hziauddeen/status/1464938434657755139