In last few hours interim PM Abdelhamid Dbaibah has been ruled out of running for Presidency ❌
Saif Al Islam Gaddafi has also been barred from running this week ❌
Leaving only Khalifa Haftar ✅
Why is Dbeibah out?
At least 2 other candidates Aref Nayed & Fathi Bashagha filed against him based on disputed elections law.
The case?
Dbeibah pledged not to run when he took power & holds dual nationality (St Kitts)
So does Aref Nayed (Canada) & another Khalifa Haftar (US)
Why is Saif Al Islam ineligible?
In 2015 he was tried in absentia in connection to killings of civilians during Feb 17 uprising. Despite this, Saif has filed an appeal in court & issued a hand written statement asking his followers to collect their ballots.
Story isn’t over.
Here’s how the 3 polled (numbers constantly change)
1.Dbeibah 42%
2. Saif Al Islam 25%
3. Haftar 9%
Look carefully at numbers.
More people chose not to vote (12%) than vote for Haftar (9%)
So where does that 67% find a home? Will they defect candidate or disrupt the vote?
What next?
Candidates submit appeal. Unlikely to reverse decision because of Aguila Salehs election law
Election law is now centre of legal/political dispute. The law was biased to Haftar, but growing concern over integrity of process
Ps HNEC stated elections could be delayed?
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Here’s a 9 part🧵 with everything you need to know on the context and dramatic events in #Libya following the disputed news of a drone strike against #Russia’s #Wagner group based on exclusive insights from multiple sources who confirmed the strike.
Read below 👇
1. Since 2011 Libya is ground zero for modern Information Warfare.
The rival factions and foreign players are engaged in a relentless battle to manipulate Libyans and is even included in the ceasefire agreement.
This latest drone strike & the public denials are nothing new
2. Battle for Control over the Narrative:
Last night LNA/Wagner disinformation networks hosted a Clubhouse room aiming to control the narrative. Their suppression tactics, including jamming microphones until 4am highlight the significance of Libyan social perception in the war
Here are 4 tweets explaining how the latest battle in #Tripoli could turn into Libya’s next civil war
This moment captures the trauma of another horrible war as children flee gunfire.
1. A turf war broke out between armed groups affiliated to rival HoR appointed PM Bashagha (77) & UN backed PM Dbeibah (SSF) in downtown Tripoli Friday night, leading to an exchange of fire & loss of territory for Bashagha’s forces today transforming balance of power in #Tripoli
2. This was a pretext for Bashagha & Haftar to try a powergrab behind PM’s office.
The plan failed.
Plan B was to take a suburb of Tripoli & contest Dbeibah’s legitimacy.
Plan B is failing & mobilising armed groups towards capital & turning the battle into the next civil war
🧵 What does military build up in #Tripoli mean ahead of elections?
Tripoli military region’s commander Abdel Baset Marwan was removed by the GNU’s Presidential Council today sparking major military build up in the capital 8 days before scheduled elections.
Marwan was particularly close to leadership of 3 armed groups in Tripoli: TRB/Nawassi/Ghnewa
In October 2020 a rival Tripoli brigade the 444 brigade stormed Marwan’s house in an attempt to arrest him. This almost sparked a new round of conflict.
Today the Presidential Council replaced him with Brigadier Gen Abdel Qadar Saad Khalifa.
Khalifa participated in the GNA’s defence of Tripoli against Haftar’s LAAF in 2019. He developed strong ties to Radda/444 during this time.