Thread by @MSS3RosaFerreum

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts It is worth noting that, of the rape allegations that are reported and where DNA testing has been performed, apparently "the current 'exclusion' rate [of rape suspects] for forensic DNA labs [is] close to 25 percent" according to Rockne Harmon (ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaev…).

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts "Every year since 1989, in about 25 percent of the sexual assault cases referred to the FBI where results could be obtained…, the primary suspect has been excluded by forensic DNA testing" according to Peter Neufeld, Esq., and Barry C. Scheck (ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaev…).

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts In further support, consider "Convicted by Juries, Exonerated by Science: Case Studies in the Use of DNA Evidence to Establish Innocence After Trial" by Edward Connors, Thomas Lundregan, Neal Miller, and Tom McEwen published in June 1996 (ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaev…).

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts "In each of the 28 cases [in this study], a defendant was convicted of a crime or crimes and serving a sentence of incarceration… [and i]n each case, the results showed that there was not a [DNA] match, and the defendant was ultimately set free" (ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaev…, ch. 2).

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts More disturbing still, "[a]ll cases, except for homicides, involved victim identification both prior to and at trial… [and m]any cases also had additional eyewitness identification…" (ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaev…, ch. 2).

Note that this is similar to the @innocence project data.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence 69% of the exonerations involving the @innocence project involved eyewitness misidentification and 32% of those cases involved multiple misidentifications of the same person (innocenceproject.org/dna-exoneratio…). There is a reason science doesn't use eyewitness testimony as evidence!

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence Similarly, "[i]n about 23 percent of the 21,621 cases, DNA test results excluded suspects, according to respondent[ laboratories, and in a]n additional 16 percent of the cases, approximately, [the DNA test] yielded inconclusive results" (ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/dnaev…, ch. 2).

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence Moreover, the @FBI has indicated that false rape accusations are 400% greater than for other crimes (ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u…). So, let's turn to the work of scholars and what those scholars found reviewing the literature, shall we?

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI Consider Philip N.S. Rumney, "False Allegations of Rape," 65 _Cambridge Law Journal_ 128 (2006) (available: eprints.uwe.ac.uk/6478/1/Downloa…) who reviewed a number of the studies that are often cited in these discussions. This is NOT a metastudy, but it is a law review article.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI Since I don't really expect you to do much footwork, @CurrieJamie, here are the studies that Mr. Rumney considered that the false rape allegation percentage found by each (from 65 Cambridge Law Journal 136–137):

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "As a consequence of such deficiencies within legal scholarship, factual claims have been repeatedly made that have only limited empirical support." 65 Cambridge Law Journal 158.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "This suggests a widespread analytical failure on the part of legal scholarship and requires an acknowledgment of the weakness of assumptions that have been constructed upon unreliable research evidence." 65 Cambridge Law Journal 158.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "[I]n the last three decades[,] there has been a lack of critical analysis by those who claim a low false reporting rate and the uncritical adoption of unreliable research findings." 65 Cambridge Law Journal 157.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI Now also consider Edward Greer, "The Truth Behind Legal Dominance Feminism's Two Percent False Rape Claim Figure," 33 _Loyola of Los Angeles Law Review_ 947 (2000) (available at digitalcommons.lmu.edu/llr/vol33/iss3…) whose work was reviewed by Philip N.S. Rumney in the law review cited above.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "At the core of [feminist] discourse on rape is … that 'women don't lie' about sexual abuse. The foundation for such a … statement is … that false accusations of rape are very rare; specifically, …no more than [2%] of such complaints are invalid." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 948.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "Despite the plethora of … citations, it turns out that there is … only one[] underlying source [for the 2% figure]—feminist publicist Susan Brownmiller's interpretation of some data… of unknown provenance from a single police department unit." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 955–956.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "…Professor Deborah Rhode['s] belief that "two percent false = other felonies" is a consensus fact that… likely comes from having perused numerous … feminist articles and books which …recycle it from… Susan Brownmiller's _Against Our Will_." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 958.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "[Feminist] literature advances the proposition that 'women don't lie about rape' as an axiomatic substrate to their proposed policy changes fueled by the purported two percent false claim figure." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 960.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "[B]ecause of its axiom that virtually all complaints of rape are legitimate, a …goal of [feminism] is to reform the legal definition of 'consent' in rape… to become more favorable to women, thereby making conviction at trial easier to accomplish." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 962–963.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "[B]lack men are no more likely to rape than white men. The radical disproportion in rape imprisonment rates can then be seen as a… marker as to just how racist the criminal …process… actually is. [Feminism's] proposal is implicitly racist." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 969–971.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI "It seems clear that the [2%] false claim figure… has no basis in fact. Since this figure is …unsupported, there is no justification for shifting the burden of proof or redefining consent in rape crimes in accordance with this figure." 33 Loy. L.A. L. Rev. 971.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI From the @innocence project and similar organizations and programs, we know that not all those convicted are indeed guilty, we just don't know how many have actually been falsely convicted. However, the studies that calculate the false accusation rate assume convictions are true.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI Crimes statistics are tricky because you must know whether the crime actually happened to evaluate whether the allegation is false, which is impossible for an outside observer. We use proxies (like inconsistencies) to guestimate false allegations, but those are quite imperfect.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI Also, some witnesses are terrible and don't seem credible despite telling the truth and some witnesses are good liars who seem credible despite telling a complete falsehood. These phenomena together result in both false convictions and false acquittals, both of which are bad.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI Considering all the false convictions, a 5% conviction rate may be too high, @CurrieJamie. Just food for thought. It is hard to say what an appropriate conviction rate would be as that would require us to know how many rapes actually occur and no one can know that with certainty.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI @threadreaderapp, please unroll.

@CurrieJamie @Oneiorosgrip @AlfTupper5 @JazhuStreaming @bjames280961 @TPeeTShirts @innocence @FBI @threader, please compile.