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JohannesBorgen Profile picture
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29 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
You're all going bananas about Omicron, so I think what you all should do is take a deep breath & read this balanced, informed, presentation from people on the ground (dated today). Highlights below.

sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/29/pre…
Hospitalization rates has been around 10%-ish in South-Af. What we should look at is this: over the next few days (because there is a lag) is that % significantly different. It's too early to tell.
Some good news
& some less good news
But reduced efficiency of vaccines has been seen before & it wasn't the end of civilization as we know it
& this is probably the most important slide

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More from @jeuasommenulle

JohannesBorgen Profile picture
26 Nov
The German financial stability review has lots of other interesting charts. Here are the ones I found the most compelling. A thread to wake you up on a lazy black Friday.
This is the equivalent of the ECB inflation spider chart... but for corporate insolvencies. Buba keeps predicting they'll spike.. but it just does not happen. Tbh this is seriously mysterious and somehow worrying.
And you can't blame Buba for those forecasts because we're really in extremely weird times. Here's how previous crises have looked like in terms of GDP/insolvencies.

This 2020 crisis totally inverts the GDP/insolvency regression line and makes it a >0 slope
🤪
Read 11 tweets
JohannesBorgen Profile picture
3 Nov
It’s finance day at the #COP26, so time to fulfill an old promise: a thread about climate change and banks!

First things first: please no debate about whether climate change is real or not, it’s boring – so let’s use it as a postulate and discuss the rest.
The topic is endless so I will only make a few important points.
1st point & THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT:

ENERGY TRANSITION WON’T HAPPEN WITHOUT THE BANKS ON BOARD.

Forget green bonds, they’re (almost) useless, for many reasons. Banks finance 70% of the European economy and bonds just a tiny fraction. So green bonds a microscopic fraction.
Read 28 tweets
JohannesBorgen Profile picture
19 Oct
I think I have just read the most hilarious piece of regulation ever. It's called "Duration netting rules" for leverage calculation in the AIFM (alternative funds) directive. A quick thread.
This is for funds that primarily do interest rate derivatives. So you take each derivative you have and calculate its "Equivalent underlying asset position". The definition of target duration is pure gold, but that's not my point here.
THEN, you map your derivatives into maturity buckets.
Read 7 tweets
JohannesBorgen Profile picture
1 Oct
Global control of your money, in three charts (all from the BIS report on CBDC and financial stability).

Step 1: your deposits go into CBDC Image
Step 2 : Oh but this is very risky, look what happened in Greece and with CBDC we won't even be able to see the bank runs. Image
Step 3: don't worry, I have a solution for you Image
Read 4 tweets
JohannesBorgen Profile picture
29 Sep
Ok, this is very weird.

The BIS Basel monitoring report is just out, and it has this very boring chart.

Yeah, yeah, we get it, Covid, bla bla bla, governments put so much money on the table that they bailed out the entire economy and there was almost no default.

BUT WAIT. 1/2
That's the same chart for bank exposures, i.e. exposures banks have on other banks.

WTF did happen????
The report has this cryptic footnote

"(25) The marked increase for bank exposures is due to a significant increase for one large bank."

WHICH BIG BANK(S) WENT BUST IN Q4 2020 WITHOUT TELLING ME??????
Read 5 tweets
JohannesBorgen Profile picture
29 Sep
This is German banking's finest hour.

*FRANKFURT COURT: WESTLB BAD BANK LIABLE FOR ~EU1B CUM-EX TAXES
*WESTLB BAD BANK MUST COVER PORTIGON'S EU1B CUM-EX BILL: COURT
*WESTLB BAD BANK TO APPEAL FRANKFURT COURT RULING
*WESTLB BAD BANK SEES NO LEGAL BASIS FOR PORTIGON CLAIMS
If you haven't followed:

West LB was the worst bank in Europe. They bought all the worst deals you can imagine. Think the other side of "The big short" ^2.

It was wound up in two : a bad bank, Portigon, and a VERY bad bank, ERSTE ABWICKLUNGSANSTALT, which is a public entity
Years later, it turned out West LB had also committed tax fraud in the famous cum-ex case (worth an entire thread, or four).

And now the Frankfurt court has just ordered the very bad bank (public money) to pay 1bn to the bad bank (kind of public money) to make them whole
Read 4 tweets

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