A really staggering share of the replies (*on twitter*, though conspicuously not on any other channel) essentially just assert that the media is singularly responsible for Biden's low approval rating
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1464668013517578243?s=20
As best I can tell, this is founded on two basic arguments:
1) Many economic indicators (growth, unemployment) are good, inflation isn't especially bad, therefore perceptions of a bad economy must be driven by poor reporting and an unfair narrative
1) Many economic indicators (growth, unemployment) are good, inflation isn't especially bad, therefore perceptions of a bad economy must be driven by poor reporting and an unfair narrative
2) Biden's policies are popular, voters do/should judge policies based on policy, and therefore Biden's inability to claim credit for his popular policies reflects a media failure to give sufficient attention to the substance of his agenda
(I'll stuff Afghanistan-related commentary under #2 as well, since it was a popular policy goal that became unpopular, purportedly due to unfair media coverage)
I think some of these arguments are more plausible than others. And even some of the plausible ones are beyond anyone's ability to prove or disprove (how much of Biden's problem in Afghanistan is media v. a chaotic reality? I have no idea how to know)
From the standpoint of a political analyst, I think argument 1 is a lot more interesting and important than 2.
That's mainly because I think a core assumption of 2--that people mainly vote on views of the details of policy--is basically wrong.
That's mainly because I think a core assumption of 2--that people mainly vote on views of the details of policy--is basically wrong.
Most people just don't think about policy like you all do, and I have no reason to expect the median voter to swing on a policy initiative if they think the economy is bad.
There's a reason why 'I have a plan for that' Warren was basically DOA beyond liberal college grads.
There's a reason why 'I have a plan for that' Warren was basically DOA beyond liberal college grads.
#1, otoh, is an important hypothesis. The role of the economy in politics is a really central finding in political science. If the media environment and/or polarization has severed the connection between economic reality and public perception, that's really important
And the case that the connection has been frayed is at least plausible. Most economic indicators support the perception of a fairly strong economy. And it's not the first time we've seen something odd in this area: approval ratings were less responsive to the economy from 08-20
But from 08-20, I do think public perceptions of the economy were fairly credibly tied to economic reality. It would be a step further if voters now reached a fairly erroneous conclusion about the economy
As an aside, it's worth noting that we had several months where the economic numbers undershot reality and required a significant upward correction. It's possible the perception-reality gap is based in biased coverage, but that bias stems from biased data not biased journalism
Another possibility is that this is a case where voter attitudes are catching *real* things that the numbers don't capture so easily, like supply chain issues, delays and worker shortages
"Business can't hire" is a real and very visible economic problem. So is the supply chain issue. I see no reason why it couldn't/shouldn't affect economic perceptions. But it's not one that's worked into the usual statistics; it's not an issue we know how to think about
Inflation is also a real issue, even if it's transitory. A household with 40k annual expenditures loses 2k in real dollars due to 5% inflation. There goes the stimulus check that you think should drive Biden's approval ratings up
And while some people get raises that keep up with inflation or change jobs, many people do not. Inflation almost invariably creates losers v. low inflation, even if real per capita income keeps up
So I'm very agnostic about whether voters are 'wrong' about the economy today--whether their perceptions of the economy are very different than what we ought to expect given the facts. I just don't know. This is obviously a highly unusual moment, coming out of COVID etc
Public opinion can also move fairly slowly. It's possible that, today, the economy is clearly back on track but the bad news from August-October continues to exert a big effect on the numbers. It will for a while.
Ultimately, I think the case that public perceptions of the economy are being driven more by weird coverage than weird conditions would be a lot better if... conditions weren't obviously so weird. The key will be whether 'normal' conditions ultimately yield normal numbers
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