Thread by @ashishkjha

While everyone is focused on #Omicron

Let's not forget Delta, our current scourge

And over past 5 days, we've seen a 25% drop in cases (see graph)

Good news, right?

No

Its what we see during every holiday: drops in cases due to drops in testing

And its a problem

Thread

Some of the drop off is lack of reporting

But a lot of it is sick people not getting tested

That's a problem because...with less testing

more infected people are spreading to others

And what we've seen?

Bigger the drop during the holiday

Bigger the bounce that follows

2/4

Which gets us to this Thanksgiving

We've seen a 25% drop in cases over Thanksgiving holiday

That's big -- much bigger than last Thanksgiving

Which means we should expect a sharp jump in reported infections later this week

Some of those will be reporting catchup

But....

3/4

Large chunk will be new infections

So don't be surprised if cases jump above 100k/day

and deaths >1k/day

It'll remind us: whatever happens with Omicron

The variant killing Americans right now is Delta

And we can stop it with vaccines, testing, key public health measures