1/8
"Beijing has now given unprecedented priority to technological innovation to recharge the country’s slowing economic growth. As such, China is placing its hopes for avoiding the middle-income trap on one single bet – making it a challenging goal."
scmp.com/tech/policy/ar…
"Beijing has now given unprecedented priority to technological innovation to recharge the country’s slowing economic growth. As such, China is placing its hopes for avoiding the middle-income trap on one single bet – making it a challenging goal."
scmp.com/tech/policy/ar…
2/8
Very challenging indeed. As Zhou Xin points out, Vice-Premier Liu He noted in his important People's Daily article that “only very few countries, such as South Korea, Singapore and Israel, have truly leapt over the middle-income trap.”
Very challenging indeed. As Zhou Xin points out, Vice-Premier Liu He noted in his important People's Daily article that “only very few countries, such as South Korea, Singapore and Israel, have truly leapt over the middle-income trap.”
3/8
There have indeed been very few developing economies that made it to advanced-economy status in the past century (I would add Honk Kong, Taiwan and perhaps Chile to this list), but none of these, except perhaps Chile, are really replicable.
There have indeed been very few developing economies that made it to advanced-economy status in the past century (I would add Honk Kong, Taiwan and perhaps Chile to this list), but none of these, except perhaps Chile, are really replicable.
4/8
Aside from the fact that all six are very small (and small entities are much more likely than large ones to be outliers) HK and Singapore are trading entrepots that got rich by serving as capital, legal and technology conduits to less open parts of the world.
Aside from the fact that all six are very small (and small entities are much more likely than large ones to be outliers) HK and Singapore are trading entrepots that got rich by serving as capital, legal and technology conduits to less open parts of the world.
5/8
The economic success of South Korea and Taiwan was probably caused, and almost certainly enhanced, by their key positions during the worst years of Cold War, when the US, Japan and Europe were determined to see them succeed.
The economic success of South Korea and Taiwan was probably caused, and almost certainly enhanced, by their key positions during the worst years of Cold War, when the US, Japan and Europe were determined to see them succeed.
6/8
Israel arguably grafted advanced-economy institutions and populations onto a developing economy. Only Chile's experience can really be more widely replicated, and it clearly isn't being replicated in China.
Israel arguably grafted advanced-economy institutions and populations onto a developing economy. Only Chile's experience can really be more widely replicated, and it clearly isn't being replicated in China.
7/8
This doesn't mean China's gamble cannot succeed. As of yet we still don't really understand what it takes to make the jump from developing economy to advanced. Liu of course is right to argue that to become an advanced economy, China has to shift its growth model from...
This doesn't mean China's gamble cannot succeed. As of yet we still don't really understand what it takes to make the jump from developing economy to advanced. Liu of course is right to argue that to become an advanced economy, China has to shift its growth model from...
8/8
one “driven by inputs” to an one “driven by technological innovation”, but that's circular logic, and true by definition. In the end I suspect the shift has to do mainly with the "right" reforms in political and economic institutions, and we don't really know what these are.
one “driven by inputs” to an one “driven by technological innovation”, but that's circular logic, and true by definition. In the end I suspect the shift has to do mainly with the "right" reforms in political and economic institutions, and we don't really know what these are.
Japan was already one of the world's top five manufacturing powers 100 years ago, which is of course why I don't include it my list of once-poor economies that have recently managed the transition to advanced-economy status.
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