Thread by @carlquintanilla

“The S&P GSCI U.S. Commodity Price Index has been declining for more than a month; it has fallen 10% since October 24th—marking its largest drop of the recovery. This has left commodity prices essentially unchanged for the last five months ..” @LeutholdGroup

(2/x)

“Industrial prices are off by almost 12% from recovery highs, and rather than surging as they did earlier in the recovery, they have also been trending sideways looking back to early May!”

(3/x)

“The Baltic Freight Rate Index has collapsed since early October, leaving shipping rates virtually unchanged (like industrial com- modity prices), measured back to May.”

(4/x)

“Are inflation fears really getting out of control? .. The two-year inflation outlook has risen to 1.96%, while ten-year inflation is anticipated to be 1.74%. Neither appears alarming, and both are .. still quite tame compared to much of the post-war era.”

(5/x)

Meanwhile, “annual growth in both the Fed’s balance sheet and the M2 money supply peaked earlier this year, in February.”

(6/6)

.. and “massive tax receipts due to a booming economy [have] caused the federal deficit to decline by eight percentage points as a percent of nominal GDP!” [Paulsen]

((END))