Carl Quintanilla Profile picture
Nov 30, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
“The S&P GSCI U.S. Commodity Price Index has been declining for more than a month; it has fallen 10% since October 24th—marking its largest drop of the recovery. This has left commodity prices essentially unchanged for the last five months ..” @LeutholdGroup
(2/x)

“Industrial prices are off by almost 12% from recovery highs, and rather than surging as they did earlier in the recovery, they have also been trending sideways looking back to early May!”
(3/x)

“The Baltic Freight Rate Index has collapsed since early October, leaving shipping rates virtually unchanged (like industrial com- modity prices), measured back to May.”
(4/x)

“Are inflation fears really getting out of control? .. The two-year inflation outlook has risen to 1.96%, while ten-year inflation is anticipated to be 1.74%. Neither appears alarming, and both are .. still quite tame compared to much of the post-war era.”
(5/x)

Meanwhile, “annual growth in both the Fed’s balance sheet and the M2 money supply peaked earlier this year, in February.”
(6/6)

.. and “massive tax receipts due to a booming economy [have] caused the federal deficit to decline by eight percentage points as a percent of nominal GDP!” [Paulsen]

((END))

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More from @carlquintanilla

Apr 17, 2023
Some interesting responses in JPMorgan’s latest investor survey:

(1/x) $SPX Image
2. Image
3. Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 12, 2023
YARDENI, on how $SIVB may “exacerbate the rolling recession” in tech:

@yardeni
2.

“.. We will be monitoring the weekly data on commercial bank deposits and money market mutual funds .. currently available through the week of March 1 ..”
3.

“.. We obviously are more convinced that the 10-year bond yield peaked at 4.25% .. We are less certain that the S&P 500 made a bear-market bottom on October 12, but that’s still our position. As for our economic outlook, we remain in the soft-landing camp.”

@yardeni
Read 4 tweets
Nov 23, 2022
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. we see the situation at #Twitter potentially exposing $TSLA to risk along a number of areas including: (a) consumer sentiment/demand, (b) commercial partnerships, (c) government relations/support; and (d) capital markets support.” [Jonas] Image
2.

“.. $RIVN could emerge as a short-term beneficiary of any potential commercial disruption/eroding customer loyalty at Tesla. .. Even if 10% of the unwinding of the ‘Tesla trade’ was re-allocated into other auto stocks... this could have material sector ‘flow’ implications.”
3.

Tesla shares this year vs. #bitcoin Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 17, 2022
MORGAN STANLEY: “Layoffs in the tech sector are making headlines. But while we expect a substantial labor market slowdown in the coming months, the tech sector likely reflects more idiosyncratic than macro factors. Overall, staffing remains lean ..” Image
2.

“.. The information sector accounts for only 3 million workers, less than 1.5% of total payrolls... More precisely, total tech layoffs since December of last year only sum 187,000 .. barely more than 0.1% of total US payrolls, which stood at more than 153 million in October.” Image
3.

“.. Tech and tech-adjacent businesses have also followed a very different path on hiring and staffing than the rest of the economy. .. Hiring freezes and layoffs are therefore more indicative of increasing discipline ..!and an adjustment to a weaker growth environment ..” Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21, 2022
Carrie Fisher would have turned 66 today. She is missed.

Here she is, promoting “Star Wars” in 1977 on French TV — in French. 💕

@ATRightMovies
2.

A great appearance on @Letterman, where she said her parents — worried about her acid problem — needed someone to talk some sense into her, so they called Cary Grant.

3.

Still one of the best GIFs of all time, @MarkHamill 💕

Read 5 tweets
Oct 10, 2022
MORGAN STANLEY: has a 56-page report on inventory:

“.. We believe many will turn to aggressive discounting .. which is likely to spark a ‘race to the bottom’ as companies attempt to cut prices faster than peers and move out as much inventory as possible ..” Image
2.

“Based on a macro analysis of different industries, Consumer Retail, and IT Hardware appear most at risk while Machinery appears least at risk.” Image
3.

Yeesh. 😯 ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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