Thread by @stephendziedzic

OK! Kurt Campbell- "Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific Tsar"- is addressing a @LowyInstitute conference. The conference title is "the Indo-Pacific Operating System." Plenty of people like this phrase, but I think it's a little clunky. Anyway, should be interesting. I'll live tweet 1/

Good first question from @mfullilove - "what will it take the United States to break free and really develop an economic strategy for the region?" Campbell says elements of the new strategy are taking shape and "we want to take quick action moving forward" 2/

A brief (and not very original) comment: the Administration has *lots* on its plate but we are almost one year into Biden's first term and the Administration is only now in "the early stages of articulating" the strategy - so yep, they need to move quickly! 3/

Campbell says AUKUS "will be among the most significant things that we accomplish." Fullilove asks about Campbell's comment last month about the "melding" of US, UK, Aust forces. Campbell says Australian sovereignty will not be lost but there will be more "strategic intimacy" 4/

Interesting. Campbell says "many close allies" have asked to join AUKUS. (He's referring to the broader technology sharing initiatives here obviously not the nuclear submarine program) He also says both the UK and Australia have said yes - "this is not a closed architecture 5/

Fullilove asks about the huge diplomatic backlash from France when Australia cancelled the submarine contract with Naval Group. Did the Biden Administration think the Morrison Government bungled the handling of the announcement? Campbell won't be drawn 6/

The Quad. Campbell waxes lyrical. He says it was almost "moving" to see the four leaders meeting this year. He says all have demanding, lonely jobs but they could "recognise" each other (he's not speaking literally, obviously - he's gesturing towards a sense of common purpose) 7/

China. Campbell - "the dominant paradigm of our relationship right now is competition. We believe that competition can be conducted peacefully." He says some Chinese elites believe the US is "hurtling" towards decline, but they are wrong 8/

Campbell says the scale of China's military build-up is "remarkable" and has "unnerved people enormously in every nation in the Indo-Pacific, but increasingly globally" 9/

Good question. Fullilove asks about the debate over Taiwan in Australia and the Defence Minister's comment that it was "inconceivable" that Australia wouldn't join the US in any future conflict over Taiwan. Does (American) strategic ambiguity still help prevent conflict? 10/

Campbell's answer here is very careful. He has no interest in being drawn into domestic political debate in Aust. Reiterates that existing US policy has not changed- "it forms the basis of our overall approach in preserving of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait" 11/

This is frank. Campbell says "seven or eight years ago" many believed Australia and the UK were among the countries "most likely to realign" and drift away from the US. That has changed utterly - "and that has largely been driven by Chinese actions" 12/

Campbell says China wanted to "drive Australia to its knees" through its campaign of economic punishment, but failed. He says he believes Beijing will re-engage "on Australian terms." We'll see! 13/

Did Biden raise China's campaign of economic coercion against Australia when he met Xi last month? Campbell says yes, Biden raised it "briefly" but in "animated" way - clearly it was on the list of "concerning" Chinese activities he reeled off 14/

Finally: is there a "cast iron" assurance Australia will actually get nuclear powered subs given the AUKUS statement simply says there is a "shared ambition" to deliver them? Campbell isn't utterly definitive here, but says there is a "shared commitment" to make it happen 15/