Thread by @stephendziedzic

The French Ambassador to Australia is giving an address to the National Press Club. The speech has been widely described as "highly anticipated" which is a) a terrible cliche and b) entirely true. I'll live tweet excerpts of the speech and the Q+A 1/

The Ambassador begins by describing the future submarine program which was scrapped by Australia. He says the program was "unprecedented" and a hugely significant expression of trust because it involved the sharing of technology which was a "core national defence capability" 2/

The Ambassador now describes the "stab in the back." He says only Australia intentionally deceived France because it wasn't sure the AUKUS submarine deal would come to fruition. He points out only weeks before the 2 + 2 reaffirmed the importance of the program 3/

Thebault is warming up now. "What can any partner of Australia now think? Is this the value of Australia’s signature and commitment?" He says the Morrison Government's decision will damage Australia's reputation with other partners and allies 4/

Now the Ambassador launches into a long defence of the French submarine program- maintaining it was running broadly on time and on budget. I don't have time/space to get into this subject here and now but I think worth noting: not all expert observers would agree with this 5/

So, now what? Thebault echoes Macron here - "good luck!" He says a big capability gap is now looming for Australia and the nuclear submarine program presents "daunting challenges." He says Australian experts are "anxious" with good reason 6/

Whack. The language here is very deliberate and aimed straight at Morrison. The Ambassador says the AUKUS announcement was an example of "spectacular marketing" with no concrete answers. Suggests the government had an eye on the approaching federal election 7/

So, now what? The Ambassador points out France is an Indo-Pacific power. He says "our ambition for the region remains unchanged, for it is a matter of preserving our core national interests and those of our closest like-minded partners. Without naivety" 8/

Now climate change. Thebault says Australia needs to ramp up its ambition and make deeper cuts to emissions by 2030. Those who don't make cuts will become an unwilling "accidental ally" of countries who resist climate action 9/

The Ambassador finishes on a slightly more conciliatory note. He says he still loves Australia and wants to rebuild ties. But he says both he and Macron have made it clear to the Federal Government they have to "propose tangible actions" to repair ties 10/

Now questions. Thebault again says it's up to Australia to come up with concrete proposals to improve ties. "So please be ambitious, please make strong substantial proposals... but we won’t buy cheap words or promises of love. Love is good. Proof of love is much better" 11/

Was Naval Group too slow to compromise and too difficult to work with? Thebault says its record was solid even it there were tensions - "was Naval Group difficult to work with? I think you worry if it’s too easy. Because it’s too easy then ... you foot the bill" 12/

Would France like a public apology from the Prime Minister? Thebault - "I will refrain – particularly in public - from giving advice to the Prime Minister" 13/

The Ambassador says it's "difficult" for leaders to "eat humble pie." But he seems to imply that France really would like a public apology, although his language here is indirect 14/

Whack again. How about the leaked messages between Macron and Morrison? Thebault says the leaks are "an unprecedented new low" and send a signal - "beware in Australia, there will be leaks. And what you say will be used and weaponised against you" 15/