Couple of interesting things about this: 1. Con MPs discriminate by region of origin much more than public do - more positive about Aus imms than voters, more negative about Pakistan imms than voters
2. Lab MPs systematically more favourable towards imms from every region than the public are, except Aus. But gaps vary:
Poland +27
Pakistan +20
France +19
Aus -2
Pakistan
3. There is a tendency to favour groups but the strength of this tendency varies and the groups preferred also vary a bit:
Cons: Aus 73, Fra/Pol 29, Pak 3 (diff 70 pts)
Lab: Fra 57, Pol 50, Pak 35, Aus 33 (diff 24 pts)
Public: Aus 35 Fra 28 Pol 23 Pak 15 (diff 20 pts)
So both parties' MPs are more responsive to migrants regions of origin than voters are, though they favour/disfavour different origins - Cons strongly prefer Aus migrants, Lab prefer EU migrants and like Aus least. Public lukewarm on all groups, but slightly prefer Aus.
In the large scale deliberative democracy exercise @whatukthinks and I helped run voters favoured treating EU and non-EU migrants the same, a view which strengthened in discussion. "Same rules for everyone, wherever they come from" is a powerful norm: ukandeu.ac.uk/partner-report…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election today. Labour would need a 21 point swing to take the seat. Some historical context:
Lab Con by-elec loss - Chesham & Amersham - swing 25.2 pts
Last Lab by-elec gain from Con - Corby (2012) - swing 12.7 pts
Other swings in post Brexit Con defences:
Brecon & Radnorshire (2019) - 12 pts (lost)
Sleaford & N Hykeham (2016): -0.3pts (won)
Richmond Park (2016): 21.7 pts (lost)
Witney (2016): 19.3pts (won)
Average swing against Con across all post-Brexit by-election defences: 15.6 pts
There were also huge swings against the Cons in 3 2014 by-elecs, the last defences before Brexit:
Rochester & Strood - 28.3 pts (lost)
Clacton - 44.1 pts (lost)
Newark - 15.5 pts (won)
Will have to check but I think last time we had this pattern - Labour narrowly ahead on imm, but most voters thinking neither party good on the issue - was in 1960s pre-Enoch Powell. Cons had massive lead on the issue from Powell to Cameron, May's net imm target destroyed that
Cons then remained ahead, but by narrower margin, because Labour figures were extremely low having fallen from a low base during new Labour years (when imm rose to the top of the agenda). Cons return to govt, and fading of Brexit, looks to have finally ended that advantage.
But this is not a return to 1960s, pre-Powell immigration politics because several things have changed fundamentally, making the issue v different now: 1. For first time ever,many people see *not enough* imm/overly restrictive controls as a problem (never before seen in polling)
A quick thread with some of the slides/key messages from my presentation at the launch of The British General Election of 2019, in particular for those unable to see the presentation live due to technical glitches
The context of the election: both parties collapsed in the polls in the wake of Theresa May's repeated failures in the Commons in Spring 2019; frustrated Leave voters defected to Brexit Party, frustrated Remainers to Lib Dems and Greens
The conclusion Conservative MPs and members came to was that of Prince Falconeri in Di Lampedusa's classic "The Leopard" - "If we want things to stay as they are [i.e. Con govt leaving the EU], things will have to change." @briancartoon here illustrates the political maths
Very excited to come to London and launch "The British General Election of 2019". Exactly two years ago, the Conservatives launched their manifesto (on a Sunday) - a crucial turning point for the party, which was scarred by the disastrous reception to its 2017 manifesto
Given the central importance of manifestos in the last election (and the one before that) it is a great pleasure to have central figures from both parties' manifesto processes - @rcolvile (Con) and @FisherAndrew79 (Lab) joining us for a discussion of the election this evening
@rcolvile@FisherAndrew79 You can tune in live - see the link on the @UKandEU tweet. And if you'd like to learn more, there lots more on manifestos and much else besides in the book, now available in hardback, paperback and Kindle edition here:
With the government staggering from crisis to crisis its worth remembering there's a by-election coming up in just over a week. Old Bexley and Sidcup would normally be safe, but things aren't normal.
Richard Tice, leader of "I can't believe its not UKIP/Brexit Party" ReformUK, could provide a lightning rod for disaffected Con Leave voters, while disaffected middle class professionals (few in these parts, though the seat leans a bit Leave) may swing to Labour
The seat has a nearly 20k majority, but the Chesham and Amersham majority of 16k was easily cleared earlier this year, and massive by-election swings against struggling governments were once a pretty standard event - Cons didn't win a single by-elec from 1988 to 1997.
My own inferior take is that "the Tories have failed to invest in the (Midlands and) North, we will deliver" is a useful message for a party trying to win an election where many of the recently lost marginal seats are in the (Midlands and) North.
Whereas "Yes, London has had a shed tone of transport investment since forever, but the Tube is in trouble and actually lots of it is poor" is not so useful, regardless of its inherent merits, because there are just less votes/seats to be had in places that would benefit