Thread by @robfordmancs

Will have to check but I think last time we had this pattern - Labour narrowly ahead on imm, but most voters thinking neither party good on the issue - was in 1960s pre-Enoch Powell. Cons had massive lead on the issue from Powell to Cameron, May's net imm target destroyed that

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1465353754023272458

Cons then remained ahead, but by narrower margin, because Labour figures were extremely low having fallen from a low base during new Labour years (when imm rose to the top of the agenda). Cons return to govt, and fading of Brexit, looks to have finally ended that advantage.

But this is not a return to 1960s, pre-Powell immigration politics because several things have changed fundamentally, making the issue v different now:
1. For first time ever,many people see *not enough* imm/overly restrictive controls as a problem (never before seen in polling)

2. Balance of public opinion about immigrants, and the social and economic impacts of immigration has shifted strongly in a positive direction in past decade. Has never been more positive than it is now

3. The parts of the immigration system responsible for most immigration numerically - labour migration, student migration, family reunion migration - are now all managed in a way broadly in line with public preferences (controlled, but liberal, with skill biased selection)

This was seldom true before - Commonwealth imm in the 1950s- early1980s was not fully controlled, then EU imm in 2000s-2010s was not controlled at all. Period when imm was least salient was mid 80s-mid 90s, with v little imm through uncontrolled channels

This illustrates why the Channel small boats story is so politically potent - uncontrolled and/or illegal migration is what voters dislike most, regardless of the circumstances of the migrants. But important to remember this is only small part of the imm system.

It was not (v similar) moral panics about asylum seekers in the late 1990s/early 2000s that really pushed imm to top of political agenda and did the most damage to Labour govt, it was much larger and more sustained EU imm inflows from 2004.

The Channel boats story could become a chronic issue, in terms of constant flows substantial enough to generate sustained media attention, and damage govt with anti-imm votes, a substantial part of its electorate. But this will still be in a broadly much more pro-imm context.