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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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2 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Absolutely amazing & somewhat sad

Observations of hurricane activity apparently don't show the right trends
So this new paper re-invents history by using modeled historical hurricane activity to find the right trends

Predictably, gross misinformation follows
This is where we are at in hurricane research?😐
And the MIT press release fails to accurately reflect the paper
Irresponsible

It goes undisclosed that the author runs a consulting firm that sells modelled hurricane projections under RCP8.5
Bottom line⬇️

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
2 Dec
During the pandemic (in 2020) in most places around the world expressed public trust in science increased dramatically from 2018 (but not Central Asia/Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa), both in general & within regions

via @wellcometrust Global Monitor:
cms.wellcome.org/sites/default/…
Reported trust in science increased the most among those who expressed having the least scientific knowledge
In general WHO is trusted much more than national governments, with a few notable exceptions
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
16 Nov
🧵
Today IOC released a new Framework on Fairness, Inclusion & Non-discrimination on the basis of gender identity & sex variations
olympics.com/ioc/news/ioc-r…

This offers a sharp rebuke to World Athletics "Semenya Rule" barring certain women from competition without medicating Image
The IOC prioritizes the prevention of harm

The World Medical Association @medwma opposes the World Athletics "Semenya Rule" because of its harm to athletes

No more need be said on this topic Image
IOC comes out against sex testing of athletes - Good

Yet the WADA Anti-Doping Code was recently modified in light of the "Semenya Rule" to allow drug tests to be used for gender verification

This is wrong Image
Read 11 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
16 Nov
🧵
Early look at long term CONUS hurricane landfall & normalized damage trends through 2021 based on peer-reviewed research & official data

1⃣Overall landfalling CONUS hurricanes
Updated from @philklotzbach et al 2018
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D… Image
2⃣Overall landfalling major CONUS hurricanes
Updated from @philklotzbach et al 2018
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D… Image
3⃣Normalized CONUS damages to 2021$ values
Updated from @JessicaWeinkle et al 2018 nature.com/articles/s4189… Image
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
15 Nov
Climate cost-benefit analyses are going to look very different when the question is not from below: “what bad things happens when we exceed 1.5C?” But instead, from above: “what benefits will we see if we return to 1.5C?”
What happens if the world warms another 0.4C (from 1.1C today to 1.5C within a decade or so) and the world looks a lot like it does today?

Future temperature targets offer the political asset of uncertain impacts

Once those targets are exceeded that uncertainty goes away
Consider:

The 1970s global average surface temperatures were about 1C less than today … no one I am aware of is making the case that the climate of the 1970s is one we should try to return to (for obvious reasons, 1970s were a decade of many global extremes)
Read 11 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
13 Nov
🧵

🚨Important🚨
A new independent validation of our normalization methods & result

Alstadt, B., Hanson, A., & Nijhuis, A. (2022). Developing a Global Method for Normalizing Economic Loss from Natural Disasters. Natural Hazards Review, 23(1), 04021059.
ascelibrary.org/doi/full/10.10… Image
A "normalized" record of disaster losses asks what damage would occur if past extreme events occurred with today's societal conditions

Over many decades, climate changes and varies, of course
But society also changes on that timescale as well

So normalization is needed
🍎to🍎
Alstadt et al 2022 (AHN22) seek to "to develop a global approach to normalize past exposure to current levels using the value of capital stock" rather than GDP

We agree 100%
Where available we have always used capital stock in our normalization studies (eg hurricanes, tornadoes)
Read 10 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
6 Nov
🧵
Let me explain how the Paris Agreement is a spectacular success & how it’s critics misunderstand its role in climate policy

The news from Glasgow could hardly be better . . . ft.com/content/b02f1e…
The idea that any domestics policies are made at COPs is wrong
Domestic policies are made in legislatures, parliaments & power centers of sovereign nations

Paris corrected Kyoto’s flaw in this regard

Paris allows a public statement of pledges & reporting on progress
Many seem to believe that leaders of sovereign states can make policy, pledges or promises at COPs

They can’t

Don’t ask them to
Read 10 tweets

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