With the current attention being given to Russia's menacing military buildup there is a lot of discussion about how seriously the threat should be taken and how to respond.1/
Inevitably at times like this we get the two favourite historical analogies - rapid mobilisation in the summer of 1914 or Munich in 1938. One warns about ambitious military moves; the other too many diplomatic concessions. 2/
Trouble with both analogies is we know they each led to war, and so 'lessons' can get overdrawn and by now are cliched. And also they come from pre-nuclear age. Risks of war are different now. 3/
Better analogy is 1961 Berlin crisis. Moscow then upped the stakes and set deadlines, had something real to worry about (ppl from E using Berlin as an escape route), saw a weak US Pres, and had all the local military advantages. 4/
JFK raised the military stakes, by announcing a US buildup (which would not have helped in fighting around Berlin) and stuck to established position that there could be no change to the city's status. 5/
Although the Germans were worried that they would be forced into concessions JFK made it clear that he would stick with status quo (although in practice that meant that he was prepared to take risks for West Berlin but not East). 6/
Khrushchev didn't want war and found a way out of the immediate crisis with the construction of the wall. Stopped hemorrhage of ppl from East but was stuck with Western outpost in middle of East Germany. 7/
US and allies agreed to talks on future of Berlin. US Sec of State Dean Rusk was happy to keep talking and could be as stubborn as Soviets.8/
So if Russia now offering talks on security guarantees etc no reason not to engage. Far too much time is spent on both sides speculating on what the other is up to and clarity might help. Things might be done for mutual reassurance. 9/
If they have a draft treaty we should study and propose amendments of our own. That could keep us going for a while. 10/
We should never fear diplomacy - but must be actually clear that Ukr is an independent sovereign state and we have no intention of pressing Kyiv into concessions it does not wish to make 11/
And we must also stop talking up Russian military options as if they were in any way attractive or easy for Putin at the moment. They are fraught with danger. He might still try something on but it is as likely that at the brink his caution will return. end/
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