Financial markets are reacting negatively to the new BLS jobs report that was somewhat mixed. Notice how the DXY appreciated while #Bitcoin price went down around its release.
This shows once more that, even if we don't want it to be true, $BTC is not isolated from what is happening in the economy or what the FED is doing. Particularly the fact that Bitcoin is moving down with stocks etc., is somewhat concerning.
While I don't believe the FED will go through with their plans to actually taper, as this likely would be followed by a strong reaction of financial markets, I think it is important to think about what happens if they go through with it.
So far, #Bitcoin has lived through a phase of continuous support of financial markets by central banks. If the FED actually tapers #Bitcoin would likely also be in for a rough ride and would be negatively affected, no matter how strong the on-chain fundamentals are right now.
It would likely completely change the game, the cycles Bitcoin goes through etc.
Again I think it is unlikely that the FED will actually go through with their plan, but in the case, they do I think it is crucial to think about what this might mean for Bitcoin.
Accidentally deleted the former thread. So here is the repost:
With another spot #Bitcoin ETF being launched in Canada, I think it is worth revisiting the development of the Canadienne spot Bitcoin Purpurse ETF. Its $BTC holdings increased substantially after its launch.
AUM then started to stall and even partially to decline since July. After #Bitcoin's price breaching a new ATH in October, interest has been coming back again, and AUM has started to increase a bit more substantially.
Currently, AUM is sitting at about 24.64k $BTC. However, it is not increasing as strongly anymore, as it has been right after Bitcoin's price making a new ATH.
Overall the stablecoin reserves on exchanges yesterday increased slightly and did not go down despite BTC hitting a new ATH. Additionally, BTC exchange balances on exchanges continue to go down. /2
Considering the Quicktacke from yesterday, this means:
- stablecoins are rotated into $BTC 🔄
- but at the same time, enough fresh capital is coming in to compensate for that 💰
/3
With the #Bitcoin supply on exchanges going down again after an increase during May-July it seems like a good time to dust of my @BitcoinMagazine article from May 11 where I dive deeper into the $BTC supply dynamics on exchanges and /1 bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/is-the…
the rather exceptional decline in $BTC reserves held on exchanges during this cycle. While it was already exceptional as of the time of the writing of the article, the continuation of the decline after a period of inflows underlines the difference of this cycle to the previous /2
ones. Whether we look at @glassnode data or @cryptoquant_com, $BTC supply on exchanges has already hit new lows this year or is close to this years low (driven by the difference in reported exchanges). But most importantly, the pattern in both is similar. /3