Everyone on the internet has already told you to read @RottenInDenmark's excellent dissection of the "evidence" the Cancel Culture Cult uses to justify its hysteria. But I'm gonna tell you again anyway: read it. michaelhobbes.substack.com/p/students-sel…
Over time I've noticed that there are certain specific issues that cause normally sober, reasonable analysts to indulge in obvious motivated reasoning. And on some level I think they're aware because they also get very huffy & defensive about those issues. Of course ...
... this kind of thing is easy to see from the outside but difficult to see from inside. I'm sure there are issues about which I'm the same way! But some issues seem to really invite it. I would include Israel (which I'm not gonna touch). Meat eating. Cars. But ...
... I don't think there's any issue on which I've seen more smart people engage in more *obvious* motivated reasoning than this cancel culture shit. People who are rigorous & empirical in other areas will accept the goofiest anecdotes & the sketchiest "evidence" on this subject.
It's so evident that lots of people just have *feelings* about this & are out hunting for anything that will justify those feelings -- including people who rightly inveigh against that tendency in other areas of policy or politics. I have my thoughts about why this is ...
... but that's for some other thread. I would just plead with analysts to apply the same rigor to this subject that they apply to, eg, health care policy, where they would *never* base grandiose theories on a motley grab bag of anecdotes. Try to get some distance. That's all.

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More from @drvolts

5 Dec
A reminder that every reactionary movement, in working itself up to violence, starts by convincing itself that its opponents -- the immigrants, intellectuals, & elites -- are a giant monolithic force that is right on the verge of destroying civilization. It's well-worn script.
I was just listening to a podcast about McCarthyism the other day & his rhetoric was practically identical to what you hear today. The commies are everywhere, right on the verge of taking over! They're all in league w/ one another! We have no time to worry about civil liberties!
You see it in the evolution of Proud Boys rhetoric too. First it was about "being ready" for when the left launched its inevitable purge. Then people get guns, get fired up, get tired of waiting, & the rhetoric shifts to "we can't afford to wait, we must preemptively strike!"
Read 5 tweets
29 Nov
One of the most pernicious aspects of political commentary is how much it relies on polls & surveys that give people a list of options & ask which they care about or believe. It gives the impression that the mass of voters are out there knowing things & worrying over "issues."
In fact, anyone who looks into it closely finds basically the same thing: voters don't know anything. They have all kinds of wacky & weird beliefs. They don't necessarily care about -- can't even necessarily identify -- "issues" as political types think about them.
So, so, so much of political commentary is DC/NYC political obsessives retconning voter behavior to render it a rational, or at least legible, response to actual facts & circumstances. It's like a fun pattern-finding game they all play together.
Read 10 tweets
28 Nov
Oman produces 1M barrels of oil a day. Now it's setting out on a full-bore transition to a hydrogen economy -- hopes to produce 10GW of green hydrogen a year by 2030, 30GW a year by 2040. zawya.com/mena/en/story/…
Interesting note on that story: "as a country, we are anticipating shortfalls in our gas supply (which necessitates an early transition to alternatives)."

I suspect all the agita around natural gas supply/prices recently is going to turbo-charge hydrogen plans.
Green hydrogen will used to make eMethanol, which can be used to power freight ships. That's starting to happen too: liquidwind.se/news/liquidwin…
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov
OK, last night I watched the latest Bond movie. It was pretty good -- the best one in a while, IMO, with real emotional stakes -- but there was one choice in it that utterly baffled me. Maybe I missed something? Short thread.
When the movie begins, Bond is retired. He gets pulled back in (of course) & in the process meets ... the new 007! She's a young black woman, a total badass, & the highlight of the movie. Lots of zingy banter between her & Bond. Great stuff.
At that point I was thinking, "ah, sweet, they've elegantly solved the problem of who's going to take over for Daniel Craig. It works perfectly in the movie & she's a great choice." (I have not followed Bond discourse at all, obv.)
Read 7 tweets
23 Nov
Fascinating study. Rather than starting with a temperature target & modeling backward to determine what's needed, this study used multiple IAMs (models) to simply project ahead based on near-term policy & 2 assumptions about how it will evolve.
nature.com/articles/s4155…
Key: "Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C."
Seems the likeliest climate outcome is that we don't get enough warming to produce the apocalyptic scenarios activists like to conjure ... but also have millions more deaths, billions more in damages, & heaps more human suffering than was necessary.
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
In Virginia, Democrats suffered based on an image of progressives ginned up in right-wing media, which they did very little to counter. And they rejected the help of actual progressives. All indications are, they plan to double down on both mistakes.
nytimes.com/2021/11/21/us/… Image
All my life, the same dynamic: the right conjures up a bogeyman left; Dems try to counter it by shitting on the real left. Weirdly, it doesn't work. There was a brief break in this cycle around the election, but it's back with a vengeance.
If I were Dems I would simply build the kind of media & communications apparatus that can bypass the MSM filter & tell positive (& accurate) stories about Dem accomplishments & goals directly to voters, from voices they actually trust & through formats they actually consume.
Read 4 tweets

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