Here’s the explanation. Omicron will only spread as fast as there are people to infect.
So the Rt or spread will be lower if Omicron can’t outcompete Delta or if it finds large amounts of unvaccinated people, even with prior Delta infections (as it has in S Africa). 10/
So the Rt or spread will be lower if Omicron can’t outcompete Delta or if it finds large amounts of unvaccinated people, even with prior Delta infections (as it has in S Africa). 10/
It’s possible that this is what’s happening. Omicron could be spreading no faster than Delta but because prior infection slows Delta down but not Omicron, that creates a higher Rt. 11/
This means Omicron, at least in parts of the US with low vaccination rates, will likely be dominant over the next few months even if it is no fastero than Delta.
Again, we all pay for the bad choices any of us make. 12/
Again, we all pay for the bad choices any of us make. 12/
So when Ted Cruz pitches a fit that he will close the government if his anti-vax policies aren’t considered. And when DeSantis says he will pay fines for people don’t vaccinate. And when Red states sue to stop hospitals from requiring vaccinations, well, this is what we get. 13/
Now to be clear, COVID spreads without much help. It doesn’t need all the help it’s being given.
It would do ok on its own, Ted/Scott/Ron. It doesn’t really need your help. 14/
It would do ok on its own, Ted/Scott/Ron. It doesn’t really need your help. 14/
So when people say “hey, you might want to wear a mask” or “consider getting vaccinated” or even “you can’t come into this school/restaurant/office if you’re not vaccinated,” it’s not a police state. It’s called common sense. 15/
We’re also going to see data from South Africa that shows unboosted vaccines are less effective at preventing infections with Omicron than with Delta.
But vaccines, boosters, rapid tests, ventilation, therapeutics, masks are the tools of science there for us. 16/
But vaccines, boosters, rapid tests, ventilation, therapeutics, masks are the tools of science there for us. 16/
But these tools of science, which will keep so many alive, have a great flaw.
They do nothing sitting on the shelf. 17/
They do nothing sitting on the shelf. 17/
And the more people who don’t use them, the more vaccines will need to get better & better … to keep up with viruses spread by people who won’t take them. 17/
So for those that do use the tools of science, who mask and vaccinate, the world seems caught in a strange loop.
Things get safer and safer every few days until they seem to take a big step back every few months. That’s the “go for herd immunity” cycle. /end
Things get safer and safer every few days until they seem to take a big step back every few months. That’s the “go for herd immunity” cycle. /end
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