Thread by @RALee85

A quick word about the possible scheme of maneuver in these maps. Militaries typically assess the enemy's possible COAs with the enemy's most likely/probable course of action (EMLCOA) and the enemy's most dangerous course of action (EMDCOA). These look more like the EMDCOA.

When you develop a scheme of maneuver, you try to form a plan that achieves your objectives while minimizing risk. Amphibious and airborne operations are inherently dangerous, so is conducting an offensive from only one direction. Where would Russia choose to assume risk? 2/

Re: an amphibious assault, Russia would need to suppress/destroy Ukraine's anti-ship systems (e.g. Neptun) before launching one with large landing ships. If they conducted a landing with only landing craft, they would need to build up that force so it could defend itself. 3/

So that amphibious landing group would likely need to be met by an offensive by ground forces otherwise they would be at serious risk. Of course, you can't land much in the way of armor and other heavy equipment without the large landing ships. 4/

So I find the amphib op in Odessa COA to be highly unlikely, and any landing would likely only happen after ground units had seized a beachhead. But it is likely Russia would conduct feints to force Kyiv to defend everywhere, pulling forces away from the main axis of advance. 5/

Likewise, if Russia were to conduct a sizeable airborne operation, it would have to mount a serious SEAD operation against Ukraine's S-300 and Buks. If you miss any of those systems, any Russian Il-76 transport aircraft would be easy targets. So the risk likely isn't worth it. 6/

Russian SOF does have HAHO/HALO-capable teams, but they are small. I highly doubt we would any static-line jumps or with BMD vehicles. Russia could also conduct a helicopter-borne air assault operation, particularly from Crimea, but MANPADS/SHORAD would still be a problem. 7/

If Russia conducted an offensive from Belarus, the NATO/EU sanctions against Belarus would be significant, which would require even more Russian subsidies to keep Belarus afloat. Not sure that would be worth it, though deploying Russian forces there as a feint would make sense.8/

Re: a possible amphibious assault, I would expect Russia to redeploy the landing craft from the Caspian Flotilla and Su-25SM3 attack aircraft and helicopters from the 55th Helicopter Regiment in Korenovsk back to Crimea as they did in the spring. 9/

Of course, Ukraine still has a large border with Russia and Kyiv is only ~110 miles from the Russian border, so any offensive from that direction would immediately threaten Ukraine's capitol and Kyiv is well within range of a variety of Russian ground-based fires. 10/

In the event of a large-scale invasion by Russia, I think they would focus on destroying Ukrainian military units in the east, bypassing large cities like Kharkiv which would slow down the advance, and moving Russian units within striking distance of Kyiv. 11/

It appears Russia will have an enhanced amphibious capability in the Black Sea soon. 12/

https://twitter.com/KaptainLOMA/status/1467196335321460738