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Rob Lee Profile picture
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27 Nov, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Screenshot from Krivoruchko's visit to the Military Industrial Company. It looks as though the K-16 Bumerang APC has more armor than before (Photo on the right is the K-17 IFV variant). Looks like it is at least partially designed to handle IEDs better.
tvzvezda.ru/news/202111271… ImageImage
A look from the side of the K-16 and presumably K-17 Bumerang. It looks as though the additional armor is an add on feature depending on the scenario. 2/ Image
The T-90M tank. 3/ ImageImageImage
VPK-Ural MRAPs and BTR-82. 4/ ImageImageImageImage
The line up of vehicles from the Military Industrial Company's Arzamas Machine-Building Plant. From R to L, K-17 Bumerang, BTR-82, VPK-Ural, Atlet, Strela, VPK-233136 Tigr Buggy. Note, how much higher the Bumerang's silhoutte is compared to the BTR-82. 5/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202111271… Image
The K-17 Bumerang IFV looks pretty much the same as before. Maybe the K-16 APC variant of the Bumerang is the only one to receive the greater armor. 6/

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Rob Lee Profile picture
28 Nov
None of the weapons NATO is providing to Kyiv is a game-changer, but I think Russia wants to stop this support before it includes things like long-range missiles or missile defense. If Russia decides to escalate, they'll destroy Ukraine's TB2 on the ground in the first 30 minutes
People have a false perception of how effective TB2 and other UCAVs would be against the best militaries because they've only been used against insurgent groups or relatively weak militaries with limited fires capabilities/air defenses. 2/
TB2 UCAVs played a key role in the 2nd Karabakh War last year, and Armenia sustained very heavy equipment losses in the first 30 minutes. But much of these losses came from Azerbaijani MLRS and ground-based fires that had GPS locations for Armenian artillery and air defenses. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
26 Nov
I thought this was a useful piece but there are some mistakes. The Western and Southern Military Districts both have 3 MTO brigades, not 2. Russian units also sometimes have unique a TO&E, so I'm not sure we can assume they each have the same # of trucks/capabilities.
Ultimately, preventing a fait accompli requires resistance. In such a (highly unlikely) scenario, Russia would likely rely on lighter units (VDV, spetsnaz, MR on BTRs), to quickly seize key terrain. If attacking forces faced resistance in every direction, it will take time. 2/
I'm not sure logistics capability is the limiting factor here, though it is obviously something useful to target and disrupt. The attacker can still succeed if it achieves surprise, and the defender isn't prepared to resist immediately. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
24 Nov
What is interesting is that the different screens we've seen almost appear to have different purposes. Some can carry sandbags or other material, some are not strongly built, some cover much or little of the turret, etc. They're clearly experimenting to see if it works. ImageImageImageImage
The screen in the 1st photo clearly isn't designed to withstand a Javelin, but it could lead a PGM to try to attack the screen rather than the tank beneath. That might be more effective against older PGMs. The screens in the 2nd photo might be effective against weaker munitions. ImageImage
Many of the TB2 MAM-L strikes in Karabakh on tanks weren't K-Kills, so you may not need that much additional defenses to protect the crew from them. Same goes for loitering munitions that aren't designed to counter armor, or UAVs dropping small munitions.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
21 Nov
Some context for this graphic from the Ukrainian MoD. BTG=battalion tactical group. A BTG is a combined-arms unit typically with 700-900 troops. Russia has 168 permanent readiness BTGs in total, which means ~1/4 of Russia's BTGs are currently near Ukraine.
militarytimes.com/flashpoints/20…
According to the Ukrainian MoD, there were 53 there in April and 51 in September during the Zapad 2021 exercise in Belarus and Russia's Western Military District, which was ~1/3rd of Russia's BTGs. The BTG figure includes motorized rifle, tank, naval infantry, and VDV units. 2/
The graphic also shows 16 fewer ships in the area than April. Russia sent 2 Ropucha landing ships from both the Northern and Baltic Fleets then and ~15 boats from the Caspian flotilla, including 3 patrol boats and 8 landing craft. Thus, most of these ships have likely left. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
12 Nov
The Belarusian MoD announced that a joint battalion tactical group of Russian paratroopers and Belarusian SSO/SOF parachuted from Russian Il-76 aircraft at the the Gozhsky range in Belarus as a readiness check amidst the buildup near Belarus' border.
t.me/modmilby/9352
The Gozhsky range is in northwestern Belarus near Grodno and the borders with both Lithuania and Poland. During Zapad, Russian and Belarusian paratroopers conducted airborne exercises at the Brestky range near Poland but with notice. This is certainly not a routine exercise. 2/
The press release states that the joint force will practice capturing and holding a bridgehead, as well as searching for and destroying sabotage/recon groups and illegal armed formations before returning to their permanent bases. 3/
Read 24 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
3 Nov
These kind of garbage tabloid articles (no one surrendered and 40 Commando was teamed with US Marine units) are the kind of thing that threaten future US-UK exercises, which are beneficial for both sides. They also mistake the purpose of these exercises.
These exercises commonly involve resets when exercises reach a point where the training value decreases, they were operating under different rules (e.g. the defenders in this exercise were allowed to regenerate after they sustained casualties but the attackers weren't), etc. 2/
These exercises should involve failures, especially as the US Marine Corps changes its focus to fighting a high-end fight with a peer adversary and tests new TTPs. The one part that was accurate is that 40 Commando, as always, did a great job. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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