Thread by @GrantRants

Good afternoon Niagara, it has been a while, but here is your local #COVID19 data snapshot. And there isn't a lot of good news locally of late as most metrics trend ⬆️⬆️⬆️ (thread)

Starting with the new cases per day, you can see the tilt upward is becoming increasingly pronounced. Still nothing like past waves, but you can see the wave intensity increasing.

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

If you look at the local infection curve chart you can see ⬆️ outbreaks, ⬆️ hospitalizations ⬆️ active cases and sadly, ⬆️ deaths (again uncommented on social media busy local politicians.)

Niagara COVID-19 Infection curve public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Remember, you can use the log button on the curve graph to get a clearer peak at the trends in question.

Moving onto key metrics, starting with the reproductive number, you see a rapid ⬆️ in the R value to 1.37. Remember a value of less than 1 is a falling infection rate, above 1 a rising rate.

Niagara COVID-19: Reproductive rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

If the R value stays above 1.0, you can expect to see an increasing number in metrics like active cases, hospitalizations and death.

Similarly, the infection rate as measured by cases per 100,000 is leaning ⬆️ again. If the R value stays above 1.0 you can expect this rate to continue to climb as well.

Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

This is not the kind of rise we saw in waves 2 and 3, but given the general ⬆️ in viral activity and possible impacts from omicron, this is a rate to keep an eye on in the next few weeks.

Who is getting sick? @NRPublicHealth does not provide a breakdown of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated cases, so we cannot say in pure numbers. However, the department says you are 4.6 times more like to get infected if you are unvaccinated in Niagara, where delta remains dominant.

What does this look like in terms of the worst outcomes of #COVID19? Accordingto @niagarahealth data it looks like this:

COVID hospitalizations vs vaccination status and age public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

With the exception of the +65 group where hospitalizations are about even, the unvaccinated dominate hospitalizations in every other demographic category.

Another way to look at it is like this. You can see as hospitalizations increase, the gap between the vaxxed and unvaxxed increases dramatically:

Niagara COVID-19 hospitalizations vs. vaccinations public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

The total vaccination rate in Niagara has more or less stalled out, even with children getting their shots. The result is Niagara remains significantly below the herd immunity threshold.

Niagara COVID-19 Vaccination by population public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

That gap between the herd immunity line and the actual number of full vaxed people is the space in which delta can thrive and spread in Niagara. That is the gap where the pandemic is currently moving about for the most part.

Whether or not omicron will change that dynamic is not at all clear just yet. Which reinforces the need to use the tools we have to limit the spread the virus.

Watch for more updates from the Niagara Dailies.

Be safe, be smart and be kind. Get your vaccines. Stand together, and we'll get through this

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