Thread by @GrantRants

Ok, Niagara, here is your local, weekly #COVID19 data deep dive. And, well, it is not looking good. The very preventable🌊3 is still growing. So let's break it down and look at where the region is at. (thread)

Active cases are now at a new record high of 2,020. With yesterday's two new deaths, the total loss in our community is at least 389 people (12 since April 1)

Niagara COVID-19 Infection curve public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

The infection rate shows no signs of slowing down (something that is reflected in a number of charts here.) with 199 cases confirmed today. There is no doubt that🌊 3 is, in terms of the infection rate, objectively worse than 🌊 2. (And again, this wave was preventable.)

COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

So now we are going to do a break down of active cases, because when you dig into some of the data, the results are interesting and shows who is carrying the burden of #COVID19 in Niagara.

Younger demographics continue to be where the virus is spreading the most, although you will notice increases in infection across all demographics now, a sign of the wide spread nature of #COVID19.

Niagara COVID-19 Active cases by age public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

When we look at active cases by gender, we find that women are being infected more than men.

(The result of more women working lower-paying, essential front line jobs + health care frontline? I cannot say for sure.)
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Looking at #COVID19 deaths by gender, we find that with one age group exception, many more women than men have died with the virus in Niagara.

Niagara COVID-19 deaths vs. gender public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Looking now at key metrics, the infection rate measured by cases per 100,00 is way, way up at 241 Niagara and reaching the 🌊 2 record high of 252.

Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

If we remove outbreaks from that rate, the situation does not really improve, as you can see it has risen steadily, and sharply.

Niagara COVID-19 - average cases weekly, excluding outbreaks public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

The % of positive #COVID19 tests in Niagara is also sharply ⬆️ at 10.3%. That is more than twice the danger threshold set by @NRPublicHealth and well above any provincial colour-coded threshold.

Niagara COVID-19: positivity rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

The reproductive rate remains high at 1.2. Remember any value over 1.0 represents a growing infection rate:

Niagara COVID-19 reproductive rate public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

The number of variant cases is now over 1,600 and growing, probably an indication that b.1.1.7 is on its way to being the dominant local strain if it has not become so already.

Niagara COVID19 - variants public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Hospitalizations are on the rise. This graph by @GordHoward shows how hospitalizations are a lagging, but rising indicator behind a rise in overall cases. 71 people are currently in hospital in Niagara with #COVID19.

Hospitalization graph public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

Vaccines continue to roll out, but with an infection rate this high, we cannot immunize our way out of the wave.

Niagara COVID-19 Vaccination by population public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Finally, do not forget the human cost of this pandemic. 389 Niagara residents have died. 20 are in the ICU. These are not numbers, folks. They are people.

COVID-19 in Niagara: deaths over time public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Niagara residents lost during the COVID-19 pandemic stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-r… via @StCatStandard

Nor should it be forgotten that this wave was preventable. A big part of why it was not prevented was because the provincial government and local mayors shoved forward with an unsafe reopening in Feb, against expert advice. Time will tell if that lesson was learned or not.

Watch for more updates today from the team at @StCatStandard.

Be safe, be smart and be kind. Stand together, and we'll get through this.

Get vaccinated as soon as you are able.

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