1 of 4:

#Omicron - Gauteng will peak around 16 December.

Follow this report on Rt by Louis Rossouw to guage when Tshwane and Gauteng are likely to peak.

unsupervised.online/static/covid-1…
2 of 4:

Extrapolating Rt for Tshwane gives a peak on 9 December (Rt = 1.0 on ~ 9 December).

The other regions in Gauteng should peak approximately 7 days later around 16 December.

Hospital variables should peak another 4-14 days later: 10-20 December.
3 of 4:

Total hospital and ICU beds will grow at 10-12% per day maximum.

The growth rate in hospital admissions lag cases by approximately 5 days (horisontal offset between dark brown and blue lines).
4 of 4:

It is therefore clear that the peak ICU beds occupied will be significantly lower for #Omicron compared to Delta.

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More from @pieterstreicher

6 Dec
1 of 6:

6 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

With only light restrictions in South Africa, the load on hospitals remain much lighter compared to Delta.

My expected peak range from 12-22 December might be too conservative. Image
2 of 6:

In the next 3 days, we should be able to a more accurate prediction for the peak.

Total hospital beds could be less than half of Delta levels (4,500 vs 9,200). Image
3 of 6:

Looking at more severe outcomes the gap is even larger.

ICU beds might peak at less than 570, almost 3x lower compared to the Delta peak. Image
Read 6 tweets
5 Dec
1 of 5:

5 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

#Omicron will not overload hospitals, even with light restrictions.

Even if daily cases peak at levels 3x higher than Delta, ventilated beds will be 6x lower.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
2 of 5:

Although daily hospital admissions are only slightly lower than Delta, the average hospital stay is much shorter at 2.8 days, down from 8.5 days for Delta (MRC). The result is much lower total admissions.

A peak between 20-30 December will be well below Delta levels.
3 of 5:

As we look at more severe outcomes, the gap widens even further.

Omicron patients in ICU is running at levels 6x lower than Delta.

A peak between 20 - 30 December will be 3 - 5 x lower than Delta.
Read 5 tweets
5 Dec
1 of 6:

#Omicron will not overload hospitals, even with light restrictions.

Even if daily cases peak at levels 3x higher than Delta, ventilated beds will be 6x lower.

data source: NICD
2 of 6:

Gauteng will peak within 2 weeks i.e. before 20 December, with peak case levels 1.5 to 3 x higher than Delta.

In these charts I moved Delta by 176 days to compare with Omicron.
3 of 6:

Although daily hospital admissions are only slightly lower than Delta, the average hospital stay is now much lower at 2.8 days, down from 8.5 days for Delta (MRC). The result is much lower total admissions.

A peak between 20-30 December will be well below Delta levels.
Read 6 tweets
4 Dec
1 of 5:

#Omicron update: 70% of C-19 patients in Tshwane, South Africa, do not need oxygen. This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves.

SAMRC update from Tshwane:

samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-d…
2 of 5:

SARS-CoV-2 has been an incidental finding in most patients that were admitted.

Of 42 patients in the ward on 2 December 2021 reveals that 29 (70%) are not oxygen dependent. This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves.
3 of 5:

There are only 4 patients in high care. The numbers of patients in high care were noticeably higher in previous waves.

There were only 2 patients in the COVID ICU in the last 14 days, neither of whom had a primary diagnosis of COVID pneumonia.
Read 6 tweets
3 Dec
1 of 5:

3 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

Lots of cases, very few severe cases!

The peak could be 1.5 - 3x higher than Delta.

Patients ending up on ventilators could be 3 - 6x lower than Delta.
2 of 5

Hospital admissions follow a more similar trajectory to Delta, and if the peak is in 2 weeks, the peak will be similar to Delta.

Hospitalisations lag cases by 5 days based on growth rate indicators.
3 of 5

There are currently 118 patients in ICU, increasing at ~10 per day. If the peak is in 2-3 weeks, the ICU peak will be at 800-1200, which is 20-40% below the Delta peak.

This estimate assumes ICU beds lag hospital beds by 5 days.
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
1 of 5:

1 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

After 24,000 new cases in the last 14 days, there is hardly an increase in ICU or ventilated beds occupied.

The ratio of cases to admissions is now close to 60:1.
2 of 5:

Gauteng only has 63 patients in ICU and 27 patients on ventilators, with no increase in the last 24 hours.

This is well below the lowest levels between the 1st and 2nd and the 2nd and 3rd waves.

This points to mostly mild cases.

source:
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 5:

Test positivity rates have only started to increase in the densely populated areas of Johannesburg. These areas are likely to have higher community immunity levels.

For 90% of the country, test positivity rates remain below 2.5%.

source:
nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…
Read 6 tweets

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