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4 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
1 of 5:

#Omicron update: 70% of C-19 patients in Tshwane, South Africa, do not need oxygen. This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves.

SAMRC update from Tshwane:

samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-d…
2 of 5:

SARS-CoV-2 has been an incidental finding in most patients that were admitted.

Of 42 patients in the ward on 2 December 2021 reveals that 29 (70%) are not oxygen dependent. This is a picture that has not been seen in previous waves.
3 of 5:

There are only 4 patients in high care. The numbers of patients in high care were noticeably higher in previous waves.

There were only 2 patients in the COVID ICU in the last 14 days, neither of whom had a primary diagnosis of COVID pneumonia.
4 of 5:

63 patients were admitted to high care, but the majority were for a diagnosis other than COVID.

In previous waves, the COVID ward was recognizable by the majority of patients being on some form of oxygen supplementation.
5 of 5:

There is a much shorter average length of stay of 2.8 days for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to the COVID wards over the last two weeks compared to an average length of stay of 8.5 days for the past 18 months.
5 of 5:

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More from @pieterstreicher

pieterstreicher Profile picture
5 Dec
1 of 5:

5 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

#Omicron will not overload hospitals, even with light restrictions.

Even if daily cases peak at levels 3x higher than Delta, ventilated beds will be 6x lower.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
2 of 5:

Although daily hospital admissions are only slightly lower than Delta, the average hospital stay is much shorter at 2.8 days, down from 8.5 days for Delta (MRC). The result is much lower total admissions.

A peak between 20-30 December will be well below Delta levels.
3 of 5:

As we look at more severe outcomes, the gap widens even further.

Omicron patients in ICU is running at levels 6x lower than Delta.

A peak between 20 - 30 December will be 3 - 5 x lower than Delta.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
5 Dec
1 of 6:

#Omicron will not overload hospitals, even with light restrictions.

Even if daily cases peak at levels 3x higher than Delta, ventilated beds will be 6x lower.

data source: NICD
2 of 6:

Gauteng will peak within 2 weeks i.e. before 20 December, with peak case levels 1.5 to 3 x higher than Delta.

In these charts I moved Delta by 176 days to compare with Omicron.
3 of 6:

Although daily hospital admissions are only slightly lower than Delta, the average hospital stay is now much lower at 2.8 days, down from 8.5 days for Delta (MRC). The result is much lower total admissions.

A peak between 20-30 December will be well below Delta levels.
Read 6 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
3 Dec
1 of 5:

3 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

Lots of cases, very few severe cases!

The peak could be 1.5 - 3x higher than Delta.

Patients ending up on ventilators could be 3 - 6x lower than Delta.
2 of 5

Hospital admissions follow a more similar trajectory to Delta, and if the peak is in 2 weeks, the peak will be similar to Delta.

Hospitalisations lag cases by 5 days based on growth rate indicators.
3 of 5

There are currently 118 patients in ICU, increasing at ~10 per day. If the peak is in 2-3 weeks, the ICU peak will be at 800-1200, which is 20-40% below the Delta peak.

This estimate assumes ICU beds lag hospital beds by 5 days.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
1 Dec
1 of 5:

1 December Gauteng #Omicron update:

After 24,000 new cases in the last 14 days, there is hardly an increase in ICU or ventilated beds occupied.

The ratio of cases to admissions is now close to 60:1.
2 of 5:

Gauteng only has 63 patients in ICU and 27 patients on ventilators, with no increase in the last 24 hours.

This is well below the lowest levels between the 1st and 2nd and the 2nd and 3rd waves.

This points to mostly mild cases.

source:
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
3 of 5:

Test positivity rates have only started to increase in the densely populated areas of Johannesburg. These areas are likely to have higher community immunity levels.

For 90% of the country, test positivity rates remain below 2.5%.

source:
nicd.ac.za/wp-content/upl…
Read 6 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
30 Nov
1 of 3:

30 November Gauteng #Omicron update:

The Delta wave was moved by 176 days to coincide with the Omicron wave.

Daily hospital admissions remain lower for similar case levels when comparing the Delta and Omicron numbers.
2 of 3:

The ratio of cases / hospital admissions (7d avg) is higher for Omicron compared to Delta.

The increase in ICU beds remain negligible. ICU beds increased by 15-25 per day during the start of the Delta wave.

Gauteng currently only has 27 patients on ventilators.
3 of 3:

The data points to significantly milder disease at this stage. There could be multiple reasons for this:

1. Younger age of those infected.
2. Immunity from previous infection or from vaccination reducing disease severity.
3. Reduced virulence of Omicron variant.
Read 5 tweets
pieterstreicher Profile picture
29 Nov
1 of 5:

#Omicron from "horrific mutant variant" to "extremely mild" in 4 days.

After 13,470 new cases in 14 days there is as yet no confirmation of a single Omicron patient on a ventilator.
2 of 5:

The whole world has overreacted.

Omicron is already everywhere.

It was easily detected in South Africa as Delta cases are running below 5 per million.
3 of 5:

For similar case levels in the previous wave:

Total hospital admission are now 3 x lower.
ICU beds are 10x lower.
Ventilated beds are 10x lower.

(data source: @sugan2503 )
Read 5 tweets

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