In terms of Warringah: Mike Baird hits the voter sweet spot in Warringah - surfer, good guy, diligent, follows up constituent issues, no mess, has "frustrated youth minister who is understanding of your sin" vibe, area Boomers wish their deadbeat children were more like Mike etc
Warringah is a wealthy seat where no one really expects much of the local MP. Nonetheless, Tony Abbott did a lot of volunteer work in the community, and he does mean well, which meant a lot of people could forgive his periodic bouts of mutancy, well, until Zali came along.
Zali is a really nice person but no one living in Warringah or on its periphery could point to anything she has actually done in the seat. But Zali probably assumed the Liberals would preselect another party hack, which is what they have done elsewhere on the north shore.
The seat of Warringah is actually ~4 seats: greater Mosman & Cremorne/Neutral Bay, Seaforth/Balgowlah/Fairlight, the Manly-Curl Curl beaches, and then "The Heights" (Allambie/Killarney). These are all slightly different areas. You want to be doing well in all to win. 
My expectation is that if Gladys runs, she probably wins. It is not like Zali could run on her record as she has not really done anything. However, Zali could score some points against Gladys if they have debates. I suspect also Malcolm endorses Zali...albeit his coattails now?
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
