1/3
China's exports in November were up 21.2% annually, compared to two years ago, and its imports up 17.4% annually. That resulted in a $71.7 billion trade surplus for the month, its third largest ever (October's was the largest).
scmp.com/economy/econom… via @scmpnews
2/3
Once again these high surpluses shouldn't come as a surprise. Beijing's attempts to restrain growth in debt and non-productive investment in the property sector must be balanced by some combination of higher consumption, lower growth, or expanding trade surpluses.
3/3
The last of these is the path of least resistance. Exports from January to November were up 15.7% annually compared to 2019, and imports up 13.6%. China's trade surplus year to date was equal to roughly 4% of its GDP, or ore than 0.8% of the GDP of the rest of the world.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelxpettis

6 Dec
1/8
People often argue that because China is the world's growth engine, any slowdown in the Chinese economy will hurt growth in the rest of the world. Here Ruchir Sharma suggests that while this may have been true in the past, it is less true today.
ft.com/content/1d3782…
2/8
I've long argued however that this was never really true. While China has been the biggest arithmetical component of global growth for many years, this doesn't make it a "growth engine" in any meaningful sense.
3/8
On the contrary, because China's balance of payments acts as a mechanism that absorbs demand from the rest of the world and recycles it mainly in the form of unwanted savings, China actually restrains growth in the rest of the world.
Read 9 tweets
6 Dec
1/5
According to the China section of the Treasury Department's biannual report to Congress, published Friday, "China’s headline foreign exchange reserves increased by $102 billion in the four quarters through June 2021, standing at $3.2 trillion."
home.treasury.gov/system/files/2…
2/5
"In contrast," it continues, "over the same period monthly changes in the PBOC’s foreign exchange assets recorded no significant changes, increasing by only $6.2 billion. Meanwhile, monthly net foreign exchange settlement data, another proxy measure for...
3/5
foreign exchange intervention that includes the activities of China’s state-owned banks, recorded net foreign exchange purchases of nearly $278 billion (1.7% of GDP) in the four quarters through June 2021, adjusted for changes in outstanding forwards."
Read 7 tweets
5 Dec
1/8
China Daily says that cutting tariffs on Chinese goods would help curb US inflation, and cites a gamut of US experts who agree that tariffs on Chinese goods "certainly" contribute to higher US prices.
global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202112/03/WS…
2/8
That might at first seem obvious, but it's just lazy thinking. The reason I've always opposed Trump's tariffs is because while they might affect bilateral imbalances, in today's hyperglobalized world they would have no effect on overall US deficits or Chinese surpluses.
3/8
That's because the former were driven by the US role in absorbing excess global savings, and the latter by China's domestic demand deficiencies. Because tariffs would barely affect either, they would have no impact on either country's overall trade imbalances.
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
1/4
Most policymakers (at least those involved in financial and economic policymaking) recognize that the current model is unsustainable, David, but transitioning to a new sustainable model runs into the problems Albert Hirschman often discussed: it requires major...
2/4
institutional reforms and a redistribution of political power, not the least of which is a sharp reduction in the total revenues and expenditures of local governments. But because among other things local governments are largely responsible...
3/4
for meeting the unrealistic GDP growth targets set by Beijing, they need to be able to mobilize a lot of resources. Cutting them down to size, in other words, also means a transformation of the country's economic growth model.
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec
1/7
According to Caixin, as local governments find it increasingly hard to sell land to property developers, and because they need to sell land to meet their revenues needs, they are turning instead to local-government financing vehicles to buy the land.
caixinglobal.com/2021-11-30/loc…
2/7
The scale isn't small, and it seems to be rising: "From July to Nov. 15, LGFVs bought 13.38% of land parcels by value across the country, up 4.38 percentage points from the January-to-June period."
3/7
These LGVFs are controlled by local governments and borrow under their guarantees, so that this effectively means that local governments are borrowing from the banks and treating the proceeds as if they were revenues.
Read 7 tweets
3 Dec
1/6
Charlie Munger says that markets are wildly overvalued, and its a little hard to disagree with him. In my "bezzle" piece I noted that 20 years ago Munger explained that overvalued markets are a form of bezzle, or fictitious wealth.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @technology
2/6
It is fictitious because it leaves us collectively, albeit temporarily, feeling wealthier than is justified by the future production of goods and services. As Munger suggests, and as I explain in my piece, both the creation of bezzle and its amortization are pro-cyclical.
3/6
But their impacts aren't symmetrical. While bezzle-creation can artificially boost economic activity through the wealth effect, bezzle-destruction is likely to undermine economic activity much more aggressively through a negative wealth effect.
carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(