Numbers of COVID cases likely to be the #OmicronVariant are increasing rapidly in England
SGTF data indicate 994 likely cases, including 2% of swabs from 4th December
This gives a worst case scenario of ~2500 cases so far and an R-value of 3.47 (CI 2.75 - 4.40)
Detail in thread
SGTF data indicate 994 likely cases, including 2% of swabs from 4th December
This gives a worst case scenario of ~2500 cases so far and an R-value of 3.47 (CI 2.75 - 4.40)
Detail in thread
This is based on “Spike Gene Target Failure” (SGTF) in the qPCR assay used on approximately 40% of samples. Data provided by UKHSA, but analyses not endorsed by them.
Since 20th November, we have this information for 256k cases. 994 of these (0.4%) are likely to be Omicron.
Since 20th November, we have this information for 256k cases. 994 of these (0.4%) are likely to be Omicron.
A few of these will be Alpha, or random failures, but the great majority will be #Omicron. These are spread widely across England. If they are a representative sample of all cases, there are likely to have been 2500 cases of Omicron in England so far. @timspector @chrischirp
There are some significant caveats. Testing has targeted travellers and known contacts of Omicron cases, so numbers are likely to represent a worst case scenario. But numbers of #OmicronVariant are increasing quickly and @sajidjavid has confirmed community spread in many places
I've had some questions about doubling time.
R = 3.47 would correspond to a doubling time of around 3 days, in line with the estimates from @neil_ferguson and others
R = 3.47 would correspond to a doubling time of around 3 days, in line with the estimates from @neil_ferguson and others
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