Watching this Sullivan fellow (late of Kabul infamy) brief the press on Biden-Putin discussion. Why is Biden, who spoke with Putin, not the one speaking to the press about what occurred? Even a Neville Chamberlain spoke to the crowds after Munich about 'peace in our time'.
Contrast with a year ago, when @generalkellogg advised the President, to this Sullivan fellow, who is a boy on a man's errand, is a stark one ..... the idea that the Russians (esp in Winter) fear the people who 'planned' the Afghan collapse & Kabul catastrophe is just farcical.
'President Putin was told in no uncertain terms that we will respond to him .... Also we gave him a gas pipeline to throttle the Germans with, esp in winter. The historic norms people are in charge"
The Russians see weakness & think that they can get both. The Germans particularly are not going to rupture a primary energy source (esp in Winter) when so much of the European energy market is in expensive chaos. And post Kabul...why be afraid?
It is Dec 2021 - it is hard to believe that we have another 3 years [at least] of the US President, who is the leader of a global security alliance, not being able to speak publicly for himself after a call with a Russian President, but instead using this callow Sullivan fellow.
The upshot of that briefing was .... what??? Biden and Putin spoke? Putin - who literally righted the Syrian AO with sheer brute force - has no fear of Biden who abandoned & left Kabul *with Taliban permission*.
No one in the Russian security apparatus has preferred pronouns.
You are in the Russian security apparatus - you were in Chechnya, Dagestan, Serbia (hush), The Stans, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria … and across the table from you are menshevik Americans who feel the need to clarify, daily, that their biological sex may not be their gender
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Problem with the Ukraine is it is a Cossack descended state that is caught between what was its historically western Habsburg realm and its eastern Romanov world...which was then brutalised by the Soviets. It is different from Poland or Hungary recovering historic nations
Anyone thinking Russian war policy is Putin-driven should watch the former head of the Romanov family speaking in 1990 to William F. Buckley & note his strong scepticism of peripheral states esp Belarus & Ukraine ever being apart from Russia 🇷🇺🐻
Problem is that any sensible resolution of Russian periphery issues, esp in eastern Ukraine, is that we are ~3 months from the collapse in Afghanistan & the Russians have claims elsewhere that US weakness only encourages, esp in the Baltic & ivo Poland.
As it is Christmas and I am often (for some reason) DMed about gift ideas for that hard-to-buy-for curmudgeon, here are some books that I have read or re-read this year that would make for a good & sound Christma gift. In no particular order ⬇️
Well this is in order as it is the excellent memoir of our former Governor General and most senior soldier, as well as my own former commanding General, Sir Peter Cosgrove
This by @hoyer_kat on the German Empire is superb and should be read by every sound person here
This on Jane Austen's "Persuasion" in @Plough is quite illuminating - Persuasion is among the best contemporary narrative histories of Nelson's Royal Navy & the figure of Captain Wentworth something of a role model...poor Anne needed better influences
Not holding myself out as any sort of Jane Austen expert, merely that I liked Persuasion. It was recommended to me by a Captain (later Admiral) I served under who said Jane Austen was among the best guides to the Nelsonian era Royal Navy as JA's brothers served in the RN.
Captain Wentworth is very much the model of the 18thC Royal Navy officer as you usually did not marry when still sea-going. Usually you came ashore (as Lieutenant or Captain) and married later in life, assuming you had not first been killed or maimed in action.
In terms of Warringah: Mike Baird hits the voter sweet spot in Warringah - surfer, good guy, diligent, follows up constituent issues, no mess, has "frustrated youth minister who is understanding of your sin" vibe, area Boomers wish their deadbeat children were more like Mike etc
Warringah is a wealthy seat where no one really expects much of the local MP. Nonetheless, Tony Abbott did a lot of volunteer work in the community, and he does mean well, which meant a lot of people could forgive his periodic bouts of mutancy, well, until Zali came along.
Zali is a really nice person but no one living in Warringah or on its periphery could point to anything she has actually done in the seat. But Zali probably assumed the Liberals would preselect another party hack, which is what they have done elsewhere on the north shore.
Re Taiwan/China: I have been asked what is my 'position' on China & Taiwan. Herewith a brief thread on the matter, as an Australian, but, also, as, hopefully, a sober realist of military affairs. This is just my opinion & am happy to be wrong (well, not to a nuclear escalation).
As I have said before, I am a small "h" hawk on China. I think the Chinese like the Russians (aka the #DragonBear) require vigilant watching. This is not because they are repressive or evil per se but because they will, geopolitically, tend to dominate the Eurasian landmass
In the case of the PRC, China faces now - and will into the future - the problem that it is a rising power that cannot feed itself & power itself in its own currency. Great powers are hungry for energy & food. The PRC & esp the CCP face the daily purchase of food & energy in USD
US has ~12 times the population of Australia.
US has ~384 times the Australian death toll from Covid. (I realise the US has a major miscounting issue of died from/with but not sure it explains this).
Australia may have over-reacted in some areas but our culture is just different
Australia is an easy foil for American Covid paranoia - we speak English, our grifters can hawk dubious videos to easy marks on the US side, and there is now a whole information eco system that runs on crankery, pseudo medications, miracle cures, etc, as well as a therapy culture
To be fair to Americans, I suspect one reason so many Americans are so suspicious of Big Pharma - and Australians are not, generally - is that in the US, so many people are on prescription medications & painkillers, that is not prescribed widely (tmk) in our medical culture.